Mark Galeotti, a former adviser to the British Foreign Office on Russia-related issues, said the Kremlin chief made a serious miscalculation in ordering the invasion
In this Thursday photo, Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at a video conference in Moscow May 26, 2022. Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Pool via REUTERS
Russian President Vladimir Putin “is not going to win ” the war in Ukraine and, “despite all his dreams of a great historical role, he will be seen as catastrophically unsuccessful,” says British analyst Mark Galeotti, a former adviser to the Ministry British Foreign Office for issues related to Russia.
In an interview with EFE, Galeotti, who has just published two books-”We have to talk about Putin. Why the West is Wrong About the Russian President” and “A Brief History of Russia. How to understand the most complex nation in the world” (both edited by Captain Swing)-, points out that the Russian president made a serious miscalculation when ordering the invasion of Ukraine.
Putin “is an opportunist” and made the decision for a large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2021, because until then he seemed to be convinced that this country “would have to return to Moscow’s sphere of influence through pressure limited political, economic and military,” says Galeotti, an intelligence consultant and specialist in Russian history and security issues.
According to the former adviser, in 2021 Putin realized that Ukraine was not going to return to Russia’s sphere of influence and decided to change his strategy and bet heavily on the military option, perhaps because “he changed his own schedule” and decided to rush to resolve the Ukrainian issue.
The Russian president made a serious miscalculation by ordering the invasion of Ukraine. REUTERS/Sputnik/Sergey Guneev
Although he cannot definitively take them for granted, Galeotti echoes the insistent rumors that have circulated in recent weeks about a possible deterioration in health Putin, so “we don’t know to what extent medical problems may have made him act more quickly.”.
On the other hand, Galeotti doesn’t think the war will be over anytime soon, stating that, “on the battlefield, we’re likely heading towards a long-term stalemate, with both countries too strong to be defeated, but too exhausted to win.”.
“I also can’t see any kind of peace deal imminent as the two sides are still very far apart. It remains to be seen whether in the long run this consolidates NATO or leads to new divisions, but a long war also means a long period of sanctions on Russia, and I see this as a mortal wound for the Putin system”, Galeotti comments. /p>
“Over time, especially starting this fall, when reserves begin to run out, we will see Putin’s legitimacy and public support fade, and the myth of his brilliance will also crumble. without remission”, ventures the expert.
The Finnish (left) and Swedish (right) ambassadors to NATO flank NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg as they hold folders bearing their respective national flags at the handover ceremony for the two countries’ application to join NATO. military alliance, held in Brussels, Belgium, on May 18, 2022.
Regarding the threats that Russia has made against Finland and Sweden for having expressed their willingness to join NATO As soon as possible, Galeotti is quite skeptical that they go beyond mere bravado.
“Russia can clearly threaten, but that is pretty much all it can do. Putin relied on bragging and our fears about his potential strengths. Now that we have seen how limited those strengths are, he is in a much weaker position”, argues the British analyst.
Furthermore, Galeotti comments, Putin has lost the propaganda battle in this conflict, in which the Ukrainian president, Volodimir Zelensky, comes out as the clear winner in terms of image.
“There is a clear contrast between the image that Putin offers, as an aging tyrant locked in his bunker, and Zelensky, the young and dynamic leader in a T-shirt, walking amidst the ruins of kyiv.
The service members of pro-Russian troops drive an armored vehicle along a street past a residential building destroyed during the Ukraine-Russia conflict in the town of Popasna in the Luhansk region, Ukraine, on May 26. of 2022. The writing on the vehicle reads: “Valkyrie” . REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko
To idealists, Putin has proven to be a brutal warmonger. For pragmatists, he is clumsy and a failure,” Galeotti maintains.
Galeotti maintains that NATO’s predisposition to admit Sweden and Finland as soon as possible and the slowness with which carried out the analysis for the entry of Ukraine, which had been a candidate country since 2018, although no further progress was made on that issue.
In Galeotti’s opinion, “NATO members must meet certain standards of democratic accountability and military compatibility that Sweden and Finland have long met.”.
However, he stresses, “Ukraine could not have become a NATO member without first breaking all the rules, which would have meant opposition from some member states (and let’s not forget that the admission of a new partner has to be approved by unanimity) and would also have fueled Putin’s fears about an aggressive West. Frankly, I think such moves would have hastened a Russian invasion rather than deter it.”
“China may be in a win-win position: If Russia wins any kind of victory, it undermines the West; but if it loses, it is likely to become even more dependent on China. Ultimately, Beijing has every incentive to sit back and see what happens.” REUTERS/Thomas Peter
Galeotti emphasizes the distant role that China is playing in this crisis, despite initial statements in favor of Russia, which although it continues to support nominally, it does not seem to be doing so a way that could seriously compromise their particular interests in the medium and long term.
In this sense, he comments, “it is possible that China is in a win-win position: if Russia wins any kind of victory, it undermines the West; but if it loses, it is likely to become even more dependent on China. In short, Beijing has every incentive to sit still and see what happens.”
(with information from EFE)