The latest poll commissioned by CBC News gives the United Conservative Party an edge, but the battle to win key seats in Calgary is still very close.
According to the results of this random poll conducted by Janet Brown Opinion Research, 52% of voters intend to vote for the PCU versus 44% for the NDP. No other party would win more than 1% of the vote.
Extrapolating from this result, Janet Brown predicts that the United Conservatives could win 51 of the 87 seats in the Legislative Assembly.
If you had asked me four months ago how this election was going to end, I would have predicted an easy victory for the NDP, said the pollster in a surprised tone.
She believes that the PCU's campaign promises enabled it to bring back into its fold many conservative voters who were hesitant to back party leader Danielle Smith. The campaign's aggressive tone didn't work in the NDP's favor either, she adds.
By focusing so much on [Danielle] Smith, [the NDP] made voters doubt her leadership skills, but it didn't give them enough positive reasons to vote New Democrats.
The poll shows, however, that the two parties are still neck and neck in Calgary. The United Conservatives collect 49% of the voting intentions against 46% for the NDP, a difference that is within the margin of error of the poll.
According to political scientist Duane Bratt, of Mount Royal University, this means that victory is far from won for the PCU.
His results partly mask the fact that the Conservatives United has strong support in ridings south of Calgary, but how does that balance out in other ridings like Calgary-Acadia or Calgary Northwest? It's going to be tight, he says.
A party could get a majority of the votes in Calgary without getting a majority of the seats, he adds.
According to polling analyst Eric Grenier, the historical advantage remains in the camp of the PCU. We know that it is the oldest people who vote in greater numbers. So that gives the Conservatives an advantage. The Conservatives also have a very, very strong base. It's hard to see that they could win less than 40 seats. So there's not a lot of wiggle room for New Democrats.
Another poll conducted by ThinkHQ thus gives the New Democrats a lead in voting intentions, but without giving them victory. The NDP will surely win seats in Calgary, but it is much more difficult to predict the number, writes the president of the institute, Marc Henry. He could win 99 seats, but that would not be enough to form the government.
The elections are held on May 29. Albertans can vote in advance until Saturday, May 27.
With information from Brooks DeCillia
The poll was conducted by Janet Brown Opinion Research on behalf of CBC News among 1,200 Albertans between May 12 and May 24. Participants were randomly contacted by phone and could complete the survey by phone or online. The overall margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error is larger for subgroups.
