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Queen Elizabeth II of Great Britain visits the Science Museum in London, on Thursday, March 7, 2019.
Photo: Simon Dawson/Pool via AP
Elizabeth II, “the last” British monarch? If the twilight of his reign raises hopes of regime change among Republicans, the British monarchy has a good chance of surviving, experts say, provided it manages to reinvent itself.
Graham Smith, director of the Republic movement, which advocates being able to elect a president as head of state instead of a monarch, admits that the time has not yet come: “There is no expectation that the monarchy will be abolished while the queen is on the throne” because she enjoys strong “popular support.”
But the question will be raised. It becomes more pressing when her eldest son, the less popular Prince Charles, succeeds her, she tells AFP.The British are preparing to celebrate for four days next week the 70th anniversary of the reign of Elizabeth II.
Symbol of the United Kingdom, the sovereign of 96 years that rose His throne in 1952 has been omnipresent for several generations of Britons and the foundation of a monarchy shaken by various scandals.
“An unseductive old man”< /h2>
beyond Apart from the festivities, this jubilee and the end of the reign that it heralds is also a source of hope for Republic: that of “making Elizabeth the last one” from a long lineage, as the slogan on his website affirms.
Those who love the queen do not necessarily appreciate Charles, argues Smith, denouncing an “anti-democratic” tica” and costly for the taxpayer.
The latest polls show that the monarchy’s popularity has waned, he says, and he believes it will continue. making it, especially among the young, less attached to tradition and more sensitive to anti-colonial struggles.
According to a survey by the British Future think tank, 58% of Britons support the monarchy, while 25% are against it. in favor of a republic after Elizabeth II. But the margin is much smaller among young people (40% vs. 37% in favor of a republic), ethnic minorities (37% -33%) and the Scots (45%-36%).
“The death of the queen will mark a big turning point,” predicts Robert Hazell, professor of constitutional law at University College London. Carlos, 73 years old, will be “an unseductive old man” when he becomes king, he tells AFP. And he does not rule out that he will be pressured by the sensationalist press to leave the place to his son Guillermo, who turns 40 in June.
“Unifying force”
To broaden its appeal and maintain itself, the monarchy will have to They have to adapt to a new world far from the values that prevailed in the last century, when the young Elizabeth was crowned, agrees public relations expert Mark Borkowski.
“No one knows what “What form will it take,” he says, “but it will have to show a change” as Elizabeth II herself did when she was shown & gué; closer and more open after the death of Princess Diana in 1997.
According to the Daily Mail, Guillermo has already expressed his willingness to change strategy after a tour of the Caribbean in March, in which he was heavily criticized for the country’s colonial past.
He would like the monarchy to be more “agile”, a “unifying force” able to withstand the test of time, says the newspaper.
The door to a lesser role for the crown in the Commonwealth, when some of those countries that still have the queen as head of state could declare themselves republics, as Barbados did in November.
Hence to imagine a domino effect In the UK there is an unlikely big step in the short term, says Hazell. In addition to a referendum, the transition to a republic would require the support of a wide section of the political class. tica, he adds.
According to this expert, the United Kingdom is already “a republic even if it does not say so”, with a sovereign without real political power, in contrast to a country with no political power. It’s like France, where “the president is like a monarch.” And he has the advantage of a head of state with whom the population identifies “more easily”.