It is the first rough estimate for 2023, when 2021 is not yet ripe. New survey The national was asked about The next presidential election. You had to answer spontaneously. Eleven family names appeared. The result was strange. Not much for the winner –Alberto Fernandez– But for the percentage he reached for winning: 16%.
The study that showed this scattered scenario is Real time data (RTD), A consulting firm created in 2019 by a political scientist Nicholas Solari -ex Polyarchy-. The company updates daily studies, which it sells to clients in the country and abroad, and publishes a complete monthly monitoring with political, economic and social data.
Between January 6 and 10, RTD Conduct a survey 1050 cases. Clarion This Thursday is part of the study. In staggering numbers: 24% believe that the Left Front is not a democratic force and should not compete in elections. And 23% thought the same about Jose Luis Espert’s space.
Low proportions and a triangular tie at the bottom
The electoral semester of the study included the question around the year 2023. “Who do you want to be the next president of Argentina?”Chancellor raised. Mention of the defendant should be “spontaneous.” They named nearly a dozen leaders, in this order, percentages and a strange triple tie in the background:
First Alberto Fernandez: 16%.
Horacio Rodriguez Larita II: 10%.
Christina Kirchner III: 7%.
Fourth Maria Eugenia Vidal: 6%.
Mauricio Macri V and Axel Kisilov: 5%.
Seventh Jose Luis Esbert and Martin Lusto: 3%.
Ninth Maximo Kirchner, Sergio Massa and Roberto Lavagna: 2%.
he do not know: 23%.
Conclusion 1: the two The dominant nouns are the ones that are best measured In Image Polls: Fernandez and Larita. In general, in that region, the head of government of Buenos Aires now wins. But as analysts always make clear, it is good to remember: “A good picture is not a vote.”
Part of this sentence is confirmed with Third place Christina. The former president has a huge rejection of a broad section of society, but he maintains a solid core of support. Likewise, in this case, since there is a lot of dispersion, they are all marginal proportions of voting intention.
The fourth place might be more surprising, because it is Vidal is one point above Macri. When you look at this story RTD Among the Voters Together for Change, the former governor is linked to the former president: both add 13% versus 20% for Larita.
Meanwhile, in Front of All Virtual Trainee, Fernandez is more than a repeat of Christina (31% to 15%) and then Kisilov (11%). Also interesting is how the president of Buenos Aires generally equates Macri and dismisses two other government officials with national aspirations: Massa and Maximo Kirchner share last place with a 2% share.
The third member of that curious association in the background is Lavagna, who is still Basem The great exponent of image duplication: In the same study, the former Kirishnery minister appears as the second best leader in the country, after Larita.
Of course this delay It’s not new: Lavagna really did get a good dose in 2019. Even months before the election he also had an excellent photo and then (almost) nobody voted for him.