ČEPS: From 2030, the Czech Republic will be dependent on imported electricity, and there may even be a shortage

ČEPS: From 2030, the Czech Republic will be dependent on imported electricity, and there may even be a shortage

ČEPS: The Czech Republic will depend on imported electricity from 2030, it may be ;t i lack

Electrification and transmission system – illustrative photo.

Prague – From 2030, the Czech Republic will be dependent on expensive and risky imports of electricity from abroad if it stops producing energy from coal. In certain cases, the country is even threatened with a lack of electricity. This follows from the analysis of the energy transmission system operator ČEPS. According to her, in the future, the state will therefore not be able to do without the construction of additional nuclear sources and also without a mechanism to support flexible energy sources. The state should also maintain a certain degree of self-sufficiency to cover the national electricity consumption.

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Today, ČEPS presented an analysis of several possible scenarios for the future development of the energy mix in the Czech Republic. Compared to the past, the analysis also included the so-called decarbonization scenario, which envisages the fulfillment of the obligation of carbon neutrality in the entire economy of the Czech Republic in 2050. ČEPS based its portfolio of energy resources on the assumption of the end of burning coal for electricity production by 2030 and with a significant increase in the installed capacity of renewable energy sources. According to ČEPS, it emerged from two scenarios that, in the event of a quick end to coal burning, the Czech Republic will be dependent on importing electricity from abroad, for example from Germany or France, from 2030. In addition, importing electricity can be very expensive and possibly risky.

“Given the uncertainties in the development and implementation of future technologies and the preservation of today's electricity production surpluses in individual countries, there is a risk that electricity imports will exceed ten percent of consumption of electricity in the Czech Republic,” said ČEPS in a report.

The ČEPS analysis also predicts a further worsening of the situation after 2030, when it could lead to serious problems with the adequacy of the system. In the case of a decarbonization scenario that envisages a significant increase in electricity consumption in transport or industry, there could be a shortage of electricity in the country.

In order to maintain the safety and reliability of electricity supplies, according to the ČEPS analysis, the Czech Republic cannot do without the construction of additional nuclear power sources in the long term. It will also be necessary to introduce a capacity mechanism to support flexible sources, where operators receive payments from the state for availability, or even for power provided to ensure the stability of the electricity system. The analysis also emphasizes that the state should maintain a certain degree of self-sufficiency in covering national electricity consumption.

According to current plans, the government is preparing to move away from coal by 2033. However, some members of the government have previously talked about efforts to speed up these steps towards 2030. For example, the ČEZ company set this deadline for limiting production from coal.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade is currently preparing a new energy concept for the state, which should be based on nuclear energy. In addition to the construction of a new nuclear unit in Dukovany, for which a tender was announced, the Ministry is now preparing documents for the government's decision on the possible construction of other nuclear units in Temelín and Dukovany. At the same time, the state is planning the construction of several small modular reactors, which should be built especially on the sites of current coal-fired power plants.