Fake off The information shared by the famous host of “e=M6” can not predict that the next months will be so cold
- Mac Lesggy, the famous host of e=M6, also an agricultural engineer, shared a post announcing a harsh winter due to a cold air bubble in the arctic.
- The data shared cannot predict this, because according to experts, it relates to the stratosphere, but weather phenomena occur in the troposphere.
- For now, Météo-France estimates predict calm and dry weather in Europe over the next three months.
“A harsh winter” expected in the northern hemisphere? “After an abnormally hot year” this is announced by Mac Lesggy, the famous host of e= M6, also an agricultural engineer. To support his point, he shares the publication of a certain Heinrich Leopold, who claims to be a chemical engineer. Several cards that seem to illustrate a cold snap accompany the post.
Mac Lessgy has corrected himself, a few hours after his first publication: “@GaetanHeymes from #Météo-France informs me that this forecast is not based on anything, so I am deleting the related tweet. Let's hope he’s right… This year especially, we don’t need a harsh winter.”
Colder Stratosphere Doesn’t Mean Colder Winter
Indeed, the forecasting engineer and nivologist at M&étéo-France, Gaétan Heymes, also denounced the false information on its social networks. “I see this tweet everywhere, relayed; by journalists or even “scientific popularisers”. So it’s the temperature of the stratosphere, which logically cools over the Arctic as the polar night progresses,” he explained.Fake news at; check? Go through WhatsApp
And to add: “We are talking about temperature at all. 10 hPa” 35 km above the ground, i.e. in the stratosphere. However, weather phenomena occur in the troposphere, between the ground and an altitude of around 10 km. “This ultra-simplistic reasoning “colder stratosphere than last year = colder winter this year”, it’s really the degree 0 of scientific rigor,” he argues.
The specialist also explains that there are teleconnections between the stratosphere and the troposphere, but he questions the qualification of the chemical engineer to “understand correctly ;” these informations. The latter also insisted on climatosceptic remarks several times.
What estimates for this winter?
Météo-France presents forecasts for the three months to coming November, December and January 2023 the most likely scenario is “the predominance of high pressure conditions, with calm and dry weather, on the European continent” According to them, the disturbances will tend to be thrown further north in Europe or south-west in the Mediterranean.
These forecasts suggest temperatures close to climatological normals for France, as well as an alternation of milder and cooler periods remains possible. As far as precipitation is concerned, no scenario emerges over most French regions. However, drier than normal weather is likely in north-eastern France.
“This bulletin does not provide detailed forecasts of weather conditions. the next few months day by day or even week by week. It only strives to determine the expected trends on average over the quarter,” says the M&étéo-France site.