The price of the dollar and money decreased with the settlement (CCL or “cable”) this afternoon to 3% Source: Archive
The MEP dollar and cash with settlement (CCL or “Cable”) is down 1.5% today. Around 4:30 PM, the first sold for $ 141.85 and the second for $ 145.73. Consequently, they are more than $ 10 less than the “savings” dollar, which is the currency price that a retail saver reaches in the formal market.
According to the analysts I consulted Nation, The reasons behind the decrease relate to the regulation of the wealth tax or Solidarity Contribution The government prefers to name it. Since the middle of this month, Sales appear in the cash market with liquidation to meet this payment, Says Fernando Marol, Director of FMyA.
“It is a definite loss”, Says Maria Castiglioni, Partner of C&T Economic Advisors. That fall “there might be something about a wealth tax,” but market expectations are also under threat. “After a strong expectation of devaluation last year, they are now more consistent: in an election year, the strategy will be to slowly depreciate and contain parallel exchange rates,” the economist says.
“The Wealth tax Genera Trade flow From the financial dollar, in addition to the public sector interventions, the last four wheels were launched from the market to allow the private supply of work, ”notes Juan Ignacio Paolici, an analyst at Imperia.
The US dollar and funds fell with the settlement (CCL or “cable”) this afternoon Credit: Shutterstock
On the other hand, there could be more “Air” in the official exchange market, Because there is speculation about the new Special Drawing Rights (SDR) of the International Monetary Fund, and the strengthening of reserves that come from this multilateral organization, which could boost the reserves of the central bank.
“Approval of the DEG deal is being discussed For member countries, that means 3200 million US dollars for Argentina; If so, then it is estimated that they will arrive in the middle of the year, but it is difficult to explain the parallel dollar decline with these speculations, ”sums up Julia Segofiano, LCG analyst.
“right Now , Expectations that the official exchange rate will be used as an anchor for inflation, This affects the demand for parallels, ”says Gabriel Camagneau, of Ledesma Consulting.
The Dollars blue It was stable at $ 149. Thus, parallel exchange rates are up to $ 16 cheaper than Savings in dollars. The retail exchange rate closed at $ 94.29, according to the central bank’s daily average. Final value for that dollar, with PAIS tax and 35% withholding, It was $ 155.58.
Meanwhile, the official wholesale dollar is running at $ 89.05, up 11 cents from today Credit: Shutterstock
Meanwhile, Wholesale dollar The official traded at $ 89.05, up 11 cents on the day. So far this year, this exchange rate, whose access has been restricted by the exchange rate and capital controls imposed by the central bank, has risen by 5.82%.
How long will the dollar be cheap
How long can this “pax” exchange last? At the moment there is a respite Because agriculture also gave better news about foreign exchange liquidation, says Segofiano: The rain improved the outlook. “It remains to be seen how negotiations with the Fund are progressing and whether the expected dollars are actually coming in,” the economist says.
“Country risk continues to rise and dollar stocks and bonds continue to decline The fact that the exchange rate is dropping and the peso is rising is not entirely sustainable“If the assets do not recover in the short term, that will be a definite event,” he says.
How long can this “pax” exchange last? At the moment there is a respite Source: Archive
On the other hand, the economist says, Seasonal peak From the demand for pesos, which are usually found during the summer due to expenditures in local currency, such as a Christmas and holiday bonus. “The demand for the peso begins to decline and this is what starts to play at some point from now on,” Kamano concludes, “but it is still a progressive problem.”
Although the government is committed to containing the official dollar, the tools at its disposal are few, says Matthias Ragnermann, Ecolatina’s chief economist. “There are not many reservations or great confidence There is a lot of pesos, then the stock can be strengthened: if that happens, more people will have to head to the parallel market, in which no advance in these exchange rates can be discounted, especially since March. “
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