Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, February 17, 2023.
Prague – At the moment when Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko would decide on the country's entry into the war in Ukraine in favor of Russia, he would risk that some of the soldiers would lay down their arms, give them to the Ukrainians, or even turn against their command. This was stated by expert Miroslaw Jankowiak from the Slavic Institute of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic (ASC) in an interview with ČTK. At the same time, he reminded that Belarusians have never been in a real war, so they are afraid of it. According to Jankowiak, it is therefore impossible to estimate how the Belarusian soldiers would behave.
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According to him, the so-called upper class would probably fight for Lukashenko and Moscow. In an interview with the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Jankowiak explained that ethnic Russians who have Belarusian citizenship would probably behave this way. However, according to Jankowiak, Lukashenko cannot count on ordinary Belarusians. “Maybe some soldiers would not want to cooperate, they would lay down their arms or give weapons to the Ukrainians, or someone would go to Minsk,” Jankowiak told ČTK.
At the same time, according to Jankowiak, not even Russian President Vladimir Putin can pressure Lukashenko to join the aggression in Ukraine. “If Russia pushes for Belarus to enter the war, it will be difficult for them to say in the media that this is a special military operation. When both Russia and Belarus are there, it cannot be hidden in the media as an operation, but it is it's a real war,” Jankowiak assessed in an interview with the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic.
In the past year, Belarus supported the Kremlin primarily by making its territory and infrastructure available to the Russians, Jankowiak said. “Now, in the later period, they are also hospitals,” added the expert.
According to Jankowiak, Lukashenko and Putin do not like each other, but at the same time they cannot exist without each other. “Many years ago, Lukashenko was interested in being the president of the united territory of the state of Russia and Belarus, he had such an ambition, and of course Putin did not allow it,” Jankowiak told ČTK, describing the reasons for the animosity between the presidential counterparts.
At the same time, Jankowiak explained that before the war, Lukashenko could “maneuver” between Moscow and the West and did not always behave according to Putin's ideas. But at the same time, according to Jankowiak, Russia supplied gas to Belarus cheaply, which Belarus resold in the West, which worked as a business for both states. “Russia needs Belarus also because of the geopolitical position between Russia and Europe,” said the expert.
According to Jankowiak, in addition to Russia, Belarus' current allies include China and Uzbekistan. But before the war, Minsk maintained “quite good”, especially commercial, relations with Ukraine. “It was not the way Poland reacted, for example, that Belarus absolutely not, because that is the regime. Ukraine did not have such a big problem with this,” outlined Jankowiak.
In an interview with the Academy of the Czech Republic, Jankowiak clarified that Ukraine basically ignores Belarus. “Both the president and the foreign minister, as well as Ukrainian politics, are trying as much as possible not to react to Belarus, not to risk Belarus entering the war. They are not reacting to the Belarusian opposition, Svyatlana Tsikhanouska. Ukraine cannot afford to open a new front from the north,” added Jankowiak.
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