The “blue” dollar has recovered from the “bottom” in six months. (Reuters)
The One free dollar rose two pesos on Friday, to $ 142 For sale, out of price floor since September 18th, nearly six months ago. The unofficial currency is losing a 14.5% or 24 pesos Over the course of 2021.
Thus the “blue” dollar remains 10.8% or more 17 pesos under the dollar to the public, the most expensive Of all segments, which with a tax burden of 65% plus Spread That banks bear the brokerage fee, ended up offering them $ 159.21 for sale.
Inflation is on the rise -3.6% in February and 40.7% year on year s Wages that are declining month after month They crush surpluses to generate savings and their dollar, while needing a peso to cover expenses leads to selling foreign currency – for the most part. Dear before “stocks”To avoid borrowing at high rates in local currency (56.1% of the average annual nominal rate for personal loans) and, in some cases, for the next payment from Wealth tax.
Meanwhile, the official exchange rate rose by seven cents on the wholesale market to $ 90.85, To accumulate an increase of 8% in 2021. With this dynamic, the Drainage gap Between the official dollar and the “blue” up to 56.3% are still in the lower limit area since April of last year.
In the wholesale wheel, the leadership role once again fell on BCRA, raised with a balance of $ 105 million USD To enter it, according to private sources.
The “blue” dollar is down 14.5% since the start of the year and the gap, with the official exchange rate reaching 56.3%.
The real show remained active again, allowing BCRA to add a new balance in its favor. The Piled up in MarchWith only two weeks of activity, in order $ 965 Million US DollarsIt is the best result in recent months by far. ” Gustavo Quintana’s photoAgent of PR Corredores de Cambio.
central bank It accumulates in net purchases of three and a half months of approximately US $ 2,400 million, If the positive balances for December ($ 608 million), January ($ 157 million) and February ($ 633 million) are taken, plus the nearly $ 1 billion so far in March.
This is BCRA’s best two weeks since November 2019 (net purchases of $ 1,512 million) and above the first two weeks of June of last year ($ 674 million).
With strict “stocks”, BCRA is experiencing the fourth consecutive month with a decent balance due to its intervention in the stock market
“The market really rules out that during the year 2021 we will live with several dollars. He explained that the official dollar will be the pillar of prices and goods in the economy, as long as there are no restrictions on goods and services due to import restrictions.” Joaquin Mark, Managing Director of UG Valores.
“The BCRA will remain Interference with stock market dollars, To put a Expectations ceilingAnd maintaining its values is just under the solidarity dollar. Mark said this continued intervention would have, like its counterpart, high state risks that would limit corporate financing.
Report from IERAL From the Mediterranean Foundation, he pointed out that “restoring traps for foreign exchange and trade, along with price control, impedes the mechanisms through which investment is encouraged.” “When The less productive the country, the lower the value of its currencyThis leads to the persistence of extremely high poverty rates. ”
Report from Turin Economics Stressed that ” Continuous base change On the exchange market in Argentina, in search of Maintaining reserves BCRA, never do more Increased uncertainty and diminished investment And even delaying the liquidation of foreign currencies from the export sector, although in the last two months of 2021, due to the decline of the exchange rate gap, the liquidation increased.
“While it is true that The gap narrowed, this is It was not synonymous with a better visualization From the market side or greater confidence on the part of investors. On the contrary, sovereign bonds continue to decline, ”added Turin Economics.
Sensitive drop in country risk
Within the stock market forecast, the Improving dollar bonds Argentina. The swap issues reported this week were their lowest since their launch in the market in September It rose 1.7% on average, To cut the decline to 32% in the past six months.
Given the rise in dollar securities under foreign law, the Country of danger DJB Morgan 28 units fell to 1,603 points Fundamental, having reached 1680 points during the day on Wednesday, the highest number since September 10, after Argentina emerged from default.
In the open electronic market (MAE), bonds have operated with an average improvement of 0.4% on the peso, in a selective market, after rising 1% the day before and after accumulating a decline of 5.7% in the previous ten sessions.
The current prices already reflect the restructuring scenario. For example, a 30% capital reduction in 2025, after a 15% discount today, gives current rates. ” Ezequiel Zambaglioni, Analyst at Balanz Capital.
Indicator Standard & Poor’s Merval From the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange An improvement of 1.5% to 49,070 unitsTo remain in the week, up 3.9% in pesos and 3.1% in dollars.
Exchange controls require the government to withdraw dollars to purchase inputs abroad and complicate production
The government managed to buy some time because the market gave it a pause
The monetary issue is back to cover the deficit: In March, the Central Bank handed over $ 70 billion to the Treasury
Inflation “just in case”: Increasing barriers to imports drive prices up