Argentine investors have performed better with stocks than bonds (Reuters)
The fiscal week left very noticeable moves, with wide swings but a positive balance of pips. The payment came from Wall Street, where it was The Dow Jones Industrial Average grew 4%, to a record high A historical record of 32700 points, instead of Nasdaq achieved a gain of 3 percent.
to me Procedures Argentine weekly balance left a The average rise is 3.1% in dollars, According to evolution Standard & Poor’s Merval From the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange it is measured “cash with settlement”.
s Even the Argentine peso sounded better If the decrease in price Free Dollar, offered at $ 142 (Minimum $ 140 Thursday), An area of declines since September that has reduced the exchange gap to 56% for the first time since April 2020.
But the Argentine dollar bonds were the exception again: They kept bidding lower, which has accumulated a 32% loss since they launched in the market six months ago.
The Bonds issued under restructuring Sovereignty last year ended with 1% average decrease per week, Although on Thursday and Friday they regained some of the ground they lost after a descending 10-wheel streak in early March that led to The minimum values for the past six monthsSince its public release.
Still some global issues with foreign law are brought up Return rates up to 20% Annually in dollars, extraordinary profitability in international comparison, with a negative yield curve: This is with a higher rate of return for short-term bonds, revealing investors’ doubts about their repayment.
In this sense, the Country of danger It was measured by JP Morgan at 1,603 points after scoring a The maximum during the day is 1680 points on Wednesday 10.
For experts Turin Economics, “The The biggest hurdle is time, Given that the government will only have even Debt maturity with Paris Club – May 30 – To persuade the International Monetary Fund and the Paris Club to give an extension period, under a commitment to hold permanent talks with the Fund, for the Do not enter the month of July into the “default” category, And that would generate a new increase in the state risk index, in a way that would make Argentine bonds, given market volatility and local uncertainty, continue to decline and close, more than that, any possibility of the emergence of new issues in international markets. “
The dollar bonds launched by the exchange with private creditors of more than $ 100,000 million hit the minimum in six months.
“We’ve had some tough weeks, which a lot of people have linked to what was happening in the emerging markets, since The US bond price has been on the rise and this has been hit hard This risk. But as the days went by, we realized that Argentina separate movie And that although what happened outside may affect us, Our indifference or complex tendencies It was not completely inherited. Specifically, it was his own and this was clearly reflected when the overseas market correction slowed in the last few wheels and Argentina continued to fall – with bonds breaking their bottom line every day, ”he commented. Nicholas ChurchInverted Personal Portfolio Manager.
“The Caution still prevails Among the investors, as they have not found it yet Drivers It can reflect lower valuations, in the climate of political and economic uncertainty that stands out through its universe Election year. So under these restrictions, The expectation is in particular to achieve refinancing Financial obligations with organizations, due to the postponement of a Agreement with the International Monetary FundAnd, albeit in part through the financial engineering of receiving the “SDR”, the economist contributed Gustavo Beer.
“The bondholders who have entered into debt swaps under foreign legislation are concerned about its price Securities that are in default levels – even if they are not –, And due to the delay in the agreement with the International Monetary Fund, they commented on who Find merchants.
BCRA buys foreign currency
The Intense Qualifiers From agricultural exports, when the concept of high seasonal income approaches, feeds the official exchange market and Allow BCRA to have a monopoly on cash purchasesIn a market with special demand, restricted by strict exchange controls.
Monetary authority accumulates a The net positive balance of US $ 960 million so far in March. And they piled up in about three and a half months $ 2.4 Billion US Dollars, If the positive balances for December ($ 608 million), January ($ 157 million) and February ($ 633 million in preliminary estimates) are taken into account.
Argentine stocks – measured in dollars – have been off the floor since October 30th
On Monday, tons of Soy In the Chicago Market, it traded at $ 530 for contracts with delivery in May, the peak harvest in South America, at the highest price since June 2014.
Although it lowered the positions later, to $ 516, it maintains 65% earnings year on year. The improvement in the prices of exportable agricultural products – grains and industrial derivatives like oils and flour – heralds an additional $ 8,000 to $ 10,000 million in income this year.
The monetary issue is back to cover the deficit: In March, the central bank gave $ 70 billion to the Treasury
The government managed to buy some time because the market gave it a pause
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