In 2050, there will be more deaths than first-time births, an unprecedented fact since the calculation was made.
Despite epidemics, armed conflicts and other phenomena with deadly implications, humanity does not stop growing.
Three generations ago, when today’s grandparents were born, the world’s population was three times less than it is today. According to the United Nations, in 1950 there were 2.6 billion people around the world. 70 years later, in 2020 the most accurate calculation estimates that 7,700 million people we share planet Earth.
The sustained increase in the world population has been a constant concern for a couple of centuries. Apart from the theories inspired by Social Darwinism and Malthusianism that consider that the world population directly influences food scarcity and the distribution of wealth, scientific evidence shows that the bad distribution it is the deciding factor in a world with a surplus of food and income.
Predicting the demographic behavior of the world allows us to anticipate social, economic and environmental changes and although it seems incredible, a new study on the population in the next 80 years ensures that the number of inhabitants worldwide will decrease for the first time in history since there is registration.
The study published in The Lancet predicts a trend that specialists have noticed a few years ago: the world population will reach its peak in 2060 with 9.7 billion people; However, this figure will begin to decline over the next forty years, reaching an approximate of 8,800 million inhabitants in 2100.
According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), attached to the University of Washington in charge of the research, the main causes of the decline in the world population are mainly due to increased educational level of women and access to contraceptives, phenomena that will negatively impact the current fertility rate, calculated at 2.2 children for every woman on the planet.
The decline in population means that some countries such as Spain, Italy, Portugal, Japan and South Korea they will lose half their population in the next 80 years and they will have to face challenges to maintain their economic stability derived from current problems, such as a declining economically active population and a growing pension system.
The research ensures that African countries will experience the highest population growth rates, while the influence of Europe and Asia globally will diminish as the century progresses. The five countries with the most inhabitants will be India, Nigeria and China, the United States and Pakistan.
The study suggests that countries that maintain a policy of zero tolerance for immigration and experience negative growth rates will face greater economic difficulties, while nations that receive migrants and offer social policies focused on women’s rights will be strengthened in the future. geopolitical landscape of the future.
Why will world population growth stop in 2100?
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