POLITICAL ELECTORAL POLLS TODAY 26 AUGUST 2021
POLITICAL ELECTORAL POLLS TODAY – The German Social Democratic Party surpassed the Christian Democrats for the first time in 15 years CDU of the outgoing chancellor Angela Merkel in polls. It had not happened since 2006. In view of the federal elections in September, in fact, the SPD stands at 23 percent against 22 percent. To detect it is the survey Forsa posted yesterday. According to the poll, the Greens are at 18 per cent, the liberals of the FDP at 12 per cent, the Afd at 10 per cent and Linke at 6 per cent. The SPD, led by Olaf Scholz, had started badly in the polls of the electoral campaign, ranking third behind the CDU / CSU and the Greens. But some mistakes of his rivals, Annalena Baerbock (Verdi) and Armin Laschet (CDU / CSU) gave an unexpected boost to the SPD one month after the vote.
HOW THE POLLS ARE DONE
The electoral and political polls are carried out by opinion polling societies respecting very specific scientific criteria. The authors of the surveys must identify a sample to be interviewed that is sufficiently large and representative of the population to be analyzed. In the case of polls on voting intentions for parties or the confidence index of political leaders, therefore, the interviewees must adequately represent the Italian population of age, those who have the right to vote and who go to the polls.
This work is done to minimize the margin of error and make the detection as reliable as possible. Usually a political-electoral poll is considered reliable if the indicated margin of error is 3 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval. It is precisely that of identifying a representative sample of the population that is the greatest difficulty for pollsters. Interviews for political electoral polls are usually conducted with a Cati methodology, by telephone, or Cawi, via the Internet, or mixed. To carry out the interviews, opinion polling companies rely on specialized companies.
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