This Tuesday the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the INDEC for August will be released. Private consulting firms estimate that will be around 2.7%, the lowest level in the last 12 months. But they warn that the relief will not last long, since the increases expected for the next few months, together with the exchange rate uncertainty, will put pressure on the index towards the end of the year.
In 2021, the highest inflation record was in March, when it touched 4.8%. From there it fell, as the official strategy of using the dollar as an anchor became effective. Thus, the currency is devalued at 1% monthly while prices run at 3%.
In July, the CPI marked 3% inflation and was the lowest since September 2020. Private analysts agree that August is the month that this floor will be drilled, with forecasts ranging from 2.6% to 2.9%.
For the Econviews consultancy, the record will be 2.7%. The economist Andrés Borenstein anticipates that it will be the lowest index of the year and points out that from this month the pressure on prices will increase again. “In the coming months inflation will be somewhat higher“.
In the last quarter of the year, inflation will be conditioned in principle by the increases already authorized by the Government. But it will also be a sensitive indicator to the evolution of the dollar.
The list of increases authorized for September includes from the 9% hike for prepaid to fees for private schools, plus the increase in expenses, rents and bank commissions.
From LCG they expect the August data to be around 3%, thus marking “a certain level of inflationary inertia”. The index of this consultancy for the food and beverages category closed last month with an average monthly inflation of 3.1%, which reflects a slowdown compared to 3.4% in July.
According to the measurement of the Orlando Ferreres study, inflation in August was 2.6% per month and registered a year-on-year growth of 46.3%. On the other hand, core inflation advanced at a monthly rate of 2.9%, marking an annual increase of 46.7%. Accumulated headline inflation was 30% in the first eight months of the year.
For C&T Consultores, the estimate is 2.6%. They warn that “inflation may drop for a few months but it seems difficult that that can be maintained. In December it will get spicy for seasonal reasons. “
From Libertad and Progreso they mark that the index for August was 2.8%. “In the first 21 months of Alberto Fernández’s administration, prices accumulate an increase of 87.4%. If we compare the inflationary performance with the last two administrations, we observe that this was the worst in this regard. Cristina Kirchner as president accumulated 47.5% in its first 21 months, while Mauricio Macri, 67.1% “, they detail.
The electoral result is not immune to the impact of inflation. From the Abeceb consultancy they mark that “the voter goes to the polls with inflation slightly above 50% per year towards September-November, inhibiting a greater recomposition of its already very weak purchasing power “.
In the previous elections, the weight of inflation was less. In the 2017 elections, inflation was 23% per year: in 2013; of 25.2%, in that of 2009 of 12.9%, while in the midterm elections of 2005 they went to vote with an annual inflation of only 10.2%.