A Ukrainian tank on the front line near Bakhmut, March 6, 2023.
Kyiv – The capture of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut is not really operationally and strategically significant. It is necessary, but not sufficient, for further Russian progress in the Donetsk region, the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its latest analysis of the fighting. As he added, Russian forces suffered very heavy losses in the battles for this city.
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“However, the battle for Bakhmut has become strategically important due to the current composition of Russian forces deployed in the area. According to some reports, Ukraine is using elite units and rare equipment here to fight mainly Russian prison recruits fighting in the ranks of Wagner's group,” the institute wrote, which it said it is not advantageous for Ukraine. While it is true that Russian losses are much higher compared to Ukraine's, ISW added.
On the other hand, “even the stock of Russian convicts who can fight is not unlimited”. According to the American institute, killing tens of thousands of them in Bachmut will mean that they will not be available for much more important fights. “Severe damage or even destruction of the elite Wagner fighting force would have a positive consequence outside the battlefield as well,” ISW said. In a video published over the weekend, for example, he criticized the Russian army command for low ammunition rations and warned that if his mercenaries were forced to withdraw from Bakhmut, the entire Russian front would collapse. In a statement on Monday, according to the Russian editorial staff of the BBC station, Prigozhin complained that his people were denied access to the headquarters of the Russian forces. He did not specify which headquarters he was referring to. He again called on the Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov to “immediately provide ammunition” to his group.
