Kantar: Spolu would narrowly win the election, ČSSD attacks the five percent threshold

Kantar: Spolu would narrowly win the election, ČSSD attacks the five percent threshold

Kantar: Elections would be narrowly won Together, ČSSD attacks the five percent threshold< /p> Elections to the Chamber of Deputies – illustrative photo.

Prague – The parliamentary elections would now be won by the Together coalition with 31 percent of the vote. The second YES movement would have 30.5 percent. This follows from the election model of the Kantar CZ agency for Czech Television (ČT). The Czech Social Democratic Party (ČSSD) could return to the Chamber of Deputies, to which the model with hypothetical coalitions awarded five percent of the vote. However, if the parties ran independently in the elections, and not in coalitions, ANO would win over the Citizen Democrats. Third would be the Pirates in that case.

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The expected profit of the Spolu coalition, which consists of ODS, KDU-ČSL and TOP 09, is currently roughly the same as according to the October model. The opposition movement ANO against the last model strengthened by almost three percentage points. According to Kantar, the Pirate and Starost coalition would now receive 13 percent of the votes.

The fourth place in the model was occupied by the SPD movement with nine percent. This has weakened compared to October, its voters are pouring over to the ANO movement, ČT reported. The social democrats attacked the five percent threshold necessary for entering the House of Representatives. However, it is not certain that they would actually make it to the lower house, as the statistical margin of error of the poll ranges from 1.1 to 3.6 percentage points in either direction. According to Kantar, the Oath Movement would get 2.5 percent, the communists would get two percent of the votes.

On the other hand, the model that did not include the coalition, but only individual parties and movements, showed different results. The first in such a case would be ANO with a gain of 29.5 percent and the second ODS would receive 21.5 percent of the votes. Nine percent of the voters would vote for the Pirates running independently. The SPD would have 8.5 percent.

Compared to the October model, ANO strengthened by three percentage points. “Nevertheless, it is essentially a return to the level we found in August and September of last year,” said survey co-author Nikola Kopáčová. The result of the ODS did not change compared to October, the Pirates and the SPD weakened by two percentage points.

According to the current model, Mayors running independently would get seven percent and TOP 09 five percent. The Social Democrats would get 4.5 percent and the People's Party four percent. The deviation in this case is from one to 3.5 percentage points. “For all those parties that hover around the five percent, entry into the Chamber of Deputies is very uncertain,” said Kopáčová.

Data collection for the electoral model took place between February 13 and March 3. this year. The election model included 970 respondents who would go to vote or do not rule out participation in the elections, ČT reported.

Electoral models of the Kantar agency (results in percentages):

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February 2023 October 2022 September 2022 August 2022
YES 29.5 26.5 29.5 30.5
ODS 21.5 21.5 18.0 19.5
Pirates 9.0 11.5 9.0 8.5
SPD 8.5 11.0 11.5 11 .0
STAN 7.0 6.0 7.5 6.5
TOP 09 5.0 5.5 4.0 4.5
ČSSD 4.5 3.5 2.5 3.0
KDU-ČSL 4.0 6.0 4.0
The Oath 2.5 2.5 4.0 3.0
KSČM 2.5 2.0 3.5
Tricolor 2.0

Source: Kantar CZ, ČT