The massive flight of Nicaraguans in the last year due to the deterioration of the economy and the repression in their country, leaves enormous profits for the regime in several directions< /h2>
By
Fabián Medina Sánchezfrom Managua, Nicaragua
The remittances sent by Nicaraguans abroad represent a third of Nicaragua’s total exports.
“We are facing one of the greatest, if not the greatest human tragedy in the history of Nicaragua” , says the economist Enrique Sáenz to describe the massive exodus of Nicaraguans that has been recorded since the second half of last year. “Unfortunately, what is a tragedy for Nicaragua is a relief for the dictatorship of Daniel Ortega” , he adds.
The departure of Nicaraguans to the United States, Costa Rica and Spain, mainly, has skyrocketed to levels that had not been seen before. In fiscal year 2020, 3,164 Nicaraguans were detained on the southern border of the United States. From October 2021 to April of this year, the number of detainees skyrocketed to 92,037, according to US Immigration data.
From January 2018 to April this year,Some 145,000 Nicaraguans have applied for refuge in Costa Rica. In the first four months of this year, 25,595 Nicaraguans applied for refuge in a growing migratory trend.
“This means that, if this trend continues throughout the year, we may have that, in approximately a year and a half, seven percent of the population of Nicaragua will have left the country”, says Saénz.
“Of course, when talking about hundreds of thousands of migrants, it may not seem like much when compared to other more populous countries, but if we see it as a percentage of the population, we will see the level of human tragedy that Nicaragua is experiencing”, says the economist. An exodus of seven percent of the population would mean the departure of 23 million people in the United States or 3,200,000 people in Argentina.
Some 30 Nicaraguans have died this year trying to reach the United States, 20 of them drowned when crossing the Rio Grande, on the border between Mexico and the United States. (Photo EFE)
“It is in no way an exaggeration to say that we are facing a human tragedy”, insists Saenz. “It is not only the loss of population but also the conditions in which this population leaves, at the risk of their lives, with the extortions they suffer along the way, the abuse of which they are victims and also, on the other hand, the fracture of the family.”
It has been known that so far this year, some 30 Nicaraguans have died trying to reach the United States. Twenty of them, including women and children, drowned while crossing the Rio Grande border. Frequently, Mexican mafias kidnap migrants and demand ransoms of tens of thousands of dollars for their lives.
“Many of these people have had to get rid of assets, sell houses, to be able to collect the necessary money for the trip. This tragedy is measured in lives and suffering, but it is also measured in the magnitude of the hemorrhage, which is not a gratuitous metaphor either. Our blood is running out, the country is bleeding”, says Enrique Sáenz.
For Tiziano Breda, an analyst for Central America at the International Crisis Group, in Nicaragua there is a change in the pattern of migration. “The migratory phenomenon has been accelerated and amplified, always for economic reasons, but also now because of the sociopolitical crisis,” he says.
“The mass flight is the combination of a worsening economic situation, political repression and the change in the United States where there is now a less draconian policy than there was under the predecessor, President (Donald) Trump”, he adds. p>
The Leonese announcer Calixto Rojas drowned in the Rio Grande on May 1. His family and friends collected money to be able to repatriate his body. (Photo La Prensa)
But as the old saying goes, “the pain of some is the joy of others”. Economist Enrique Saénz considers that the migratory explosion that Nicaragua is experiencing benefits Daniel Ortega’s regime in various ways. “In the first place, it decongests the pressure in the labor market, it also decongests the discomfort that accumulates due to the cost of living, and, thirdly, after a few months, this migration translates into family remittances. We have also had an explosive growth in family remittances so far this year, which somehow refreshes the scales, balances and resources of the regime. So, what is a tragedy for the Nicaraguan people, for Ortega it is an oxygen balloon.”
According to data from the Central Bank of Nicaragua, last year they arrived in the country 2,147 million dollars in remittances, which is equivalent to roughly 30 percent of Nicaragua’s total exports in a year. Between January and April of this year, 866.5 million dollars have entered Nicaragua through family remittances, which represents almost 30 percent more than what was registered in remittances in the same period last year.
“Remittances are a profitable business for Daniel Ortega”Said Saenz. “They are euros or dollars that enter clean, that arrive directly at the banks, and, since you have to transform them into cordobas, they feed the reserves, increase the currency and the economic activity of the country. Consumption is one of the engines of the economy and translates into tax revenue.”
According to the calculations of the economist Enrique Saénz, by the end of 2022, 7 percent of the population of Nicaragua will have left in a year and a half.
Tiziano Breda sees at least three advantages that migration brings him of Nicaraguans to the regime of Daniel Ortega. The first, he says, “From the economic point of view, there are fewer people to serve with job opportunities and, as a palliative element, remittances arrive that alleviate the financial situation of the families that remain, stimulating consumption at a very low cost to the government”< /b>.
Second, he adds, “a certain percentage of those who left did so for political reasons, it implies that a good part of them have left not only due to economic necessity but also because of being opponents, because they are persecuted by the government, and that leaves a decrease in the flow of internal opposition that can be favorable for the government.”
And third, that “ehe fact that so many Nicaraguans arrive in the United States is a lever for pressure or negotiation that these governments can have, with migratory pressure on the southern border being a very sensitive electoral political issue in the United States.”.
Says that the attitude of the Nicaraguan regime towards local migration is “laissez faire, laissez passer” (let it be done, let it pass), “it does not encourage it, but it does not contain it either” contrary to migration of other nationalities, mainly Cuban, “which does facilitate it.”
Sáenz, for his part, emphasizes that, despite the many benefits he receives, Daniel Ortega has never recognized the effort of Nicaraguans abroad. “One of the main sources that has kept the economy or Ortega’s economic model afloat has been the work and vigilance of Nicaraguans who do two and even three days of work to be able to send money to their families. Never, ever, has he had a word of recognition for their efforts.”