Median: The parliamentary elections would be won by the government coalition parties before ANO

Median: The parliamentary elections would be won by the government coalition parties before ANO

Median: House of Representatives elections would be won by the parties of the ruling coalition before YES

Choices – illustrative photo.

Prague – The parties of the government coalition (Spolu + PirSTAN) would now win the parliamentary elections, they would get 41.5 percent of the votes. The second ANO movement would have 32 percent. This follows from the election model of the agency Median, the results of which are available to CTK. The Czech Social Democratic Party (ČSSD), which, like TOP 09, hovers around the five percent electoral threshold, could return to the Chamber of Deputies. If the parties had run independently in the elections, and not in coalitions, ANO would have won by a margin over the Citizen Democrats. Third would be the Pirates.

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According to the February survey, a total of seven political parties and movements would make it to the House of Representatives. The highest voter preferences are held by the ANO movement, which, according to Median, is mainly voted for by pensioners and people over the age of 65. It is followed by the ODS, which 14.5 percent of mostly more educated people would vote for. Pirates currently have 11.5 percent of the electorate, most of whom are young people. The fourth SPD, which lost 2.5 percentage points compared to the last poll, would win the votes of 9.5 percent of voters. Mayors and independents received seven percent of the vote, the poll shows.

“The preferences of the ANO movement have increased slightly since the last survey. The ANO movement thus continues to maintain its growing trend. Support for the ODS, Pirates and STAN has also increased slightly,” comments Median. The social democrats are attacking the five percent threshold necessary for entering the House of Representatives. TOP 09 is also on the threshold of electability. However, it is not certain that they would actually get into the lower house. The poll's margin of error for minor parties is around 1.5 percentage points in either direction. The People's Party, the Communists, the Greens, the Přísaha and the Tricolor would lose the election.

According to a February survey by the Kantar CZ agency for Czech Television ( CT) the parliamentary elections would now be won by the Together coalition with 31 percent of the vote. The second YES movement would have 30.5 percent. This model also showed that the ČSSD could return to the House of Representatives.

According to Median, 64 percent of respondents would definitely participate in the elections to the Chamber of Deputies in February. Another 15 percent would consider participating. Voter turnout in the October 2021 elections was 65.43 percent. Data collection for Median's election model took place from February 12 to March 7. 1011 respondents took part in the survey.

Median election models (results in percentages):

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May 2022 June 2022 July 2022 August 2022 September 2022 October 2022 February 2023
YES 28.5 29.0 29.0 30.5 31.5 32
ODS 16.5 16.1 15.5 16.0 16.0 13.5 14.5
SPD 11.5 12.5 12.5 14 11.5 12, 0 9.5
Pirates 9.0 11.8 10.5 11.5 11.0 11.0 11.5
4.5 4.6 4.5 3.5 6.0 3.5
STAN 8.5 4.8 5.5 4.0 5.5 5.5 7
ČSSD 5.5 5.6 5.0 5.0 4.5 5.5 5
TOP 09 4.5 5.2 5.0 3.5 6.0 5.0 5
The Oath 3.0 2.2 3.0 3.5 3.0 2.0 2.5
KSČM 3.0 2.8 3.5 2.5 2.0 3.5
Tricolor 2.5 1.6 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5

< em>Source: Median