As the only mayor ecologist of a city of over 100,000 inhabitants elected in 2014, Eric Piolle in Grenoble, should logically find his chair, the breath green will overthrow it to the second round of municipal elections on Sunday ?
Impossible actually to speak of ” wave “. Even with strong growth, the Greens can potentially take seven to ten cities of more than 30000 inhabitants, in a country which has 260. Except that in this handful of cities, there was Lyon – and its metropolis, Lille, Marseille and Bordeaux and Toulouse.
The capital of the Gauls is also the greater chance of the lists EELV, allied or not to the parties of the left. Even if the european mp Yannick Jadot is optimistic :
A Lyon, therefore, the last IFOP poll dated 23 June place the candidate metropolitan Bruno Bernard in the lead with 37 % of voting intentions, ahead of the candidate LR-LREM François-Noël Buffet at 32% and the walker dissident David Kimelfeld to 26 %.
Fourteen districts are to vote Sunday, but such a score would allow environmentalists and their allies to hold the absolute majority of the seats to the Metropolis of Lyon – thanks to the majority bonus.
Obviously, nothing is played, in Lyon as elsewhere. Take the case of Strasbourg, where the list of the representative EELV came top in the first round, with 28 % of the vote. An alliance with the socialist Catherine Trautmann (20%) would have been able to almost fold the game. But it was nothing of the sort, and the two women find themselves in a triangular with the walker Alain Fontanel. The latter has made a covenant, at the last moment, with the Republican Jean-Philippe Vetter.
Lille and Toulouse : threats to the incumbent mayor
Same situation for the triangular-EELV-PS-LREM to Lille. The mayor outbound Martine Aubry is threatened by the environmentalist Stéphane, who could create the surprise. It is just around the corner actually Martine Aubry of two points in the last IFOP survey for the Voice of The North, 37 % against 39 %, and 24 % to the candidate walker Violette Spillebout.
The former boss of the PS has felt the wind of the shot, it is currently supported by… the right.
The ouster of Martine Aubry would be indeed a thunder of these municipal elections, but not the only one. At the other end of France, another mayor is threatened by an ecologist. It is Jean-Luc Moudenc in Toulouse. Its competitor, the ecologist, Antoine, Mauritius leads the list of coalition Archipelago Citizen (16 training policies).
The latest IFOP survey for Sud Radio and La Dépêche du midi, dated June 24, gives the winner the face of the outgoing mayor, 50.5 %, in full in the margin of error !
The elbow-to-elbow in Bordeaux and Marseille
The suspense should be at its zenith, in Lille as in Toulouse, with a single certainty : the voters of the first round will play the justices of the peace. Julien Bayou, national secretary of EELV is perfect aware of :
Has Bordeaux, the candidate of the green Stone Hurmic is him in a posture all the more delicate as the leader of Bordeaux struggle, Philippe Poutou, has decided to maintain its list, and the outgoing mayor LR Nicholas Florian was joined by the walker Thomas Cazeneuve.
Regular elections of bordeaux, a Stone Hurmic has conquered 34,56 % of the voters who went to the polls on 15 march, while the surveys he gave just 20 % a few months earlier. Its direct competitor, the was pushing hard with 34,38 %. Election, which could thus play elbow to elbow unless all the voters LREM does not follow the voice of their master.
In marseilles, Michèle Rubirola, the head of the list of the Spring in Marseille, it is not (or at least most) of the seraglio EELV. It is no less a conservationist who has made a covenant with formations of the left to bring down a bastion of the right. The latest BVA survey placed her in the lead in voting intentions with 35 % of the vote, ahead of the heir of Jean-Claude Gaudin Martine Vassal (30%) and the candidate of the national Gathering Stéphane Ravier (20%).
But the election to Marseille is complicated by the voting areas, which confronts up to six candidates. The Spring Marseille must win in six sectors out of nine (as it has seven candidates) to obtain the absolute majority in the municipal council.
Opportunities to Tours, Besançon and Metz
Things are much more simple in smaller cities. To begin with, Besançon that Sunday evening could dress in green. The candidate EELV and allies, Anne Vignot, topped the first round with 31.1 percent faces in a triangular Ludovic Fagaut (LR, 23,59%) and Eric Alauzet (LREM-Modem).
The candidate EELV of Towers (135 000 inhabitants) will play more tight. And even if Emmanuel Denis is leaving the first with ten points ahead in his home, in front of the outgoing mayor, centrist Christophe Bouchet, and even if it is at the head of a broad coalition, ranging from the PS to the France Insubordinate. In front of him, the first magistrate, is allied to the Republic in march. The mission is all the more full-bodied than the two men confront each other in a duel.
Has Metz also, the election promises to be complicated for the candidate EELV, Xavier Bouvet, since an alliance LR-LREM led by François Grosdidier hope to stop him. A third candidate remains in the running, Françoise Grolet, for the national Gathering.
Note again, two cities “prenables” for the Greens in the Ile-de-France : Brétigny-sur-Orge and Savigny-sur-Orge.
In place in Paris, Nantes and Rouen
This overview lists the cities in which the head of the list is EELV, or at least an ecologist. The Greens also derive their pin of the game in the commons where they have made an alliance with the candidate of the left, starting with the first of them, Paris. A victory of Anne Hidalgo would guarantee a hell of a weight in the balance.
The scenario is the same at Nantes, where the mayor outbound PS, Johanna Rolland and ecologist Julie Laernoes, are united, but also at Rouen, where the environmentalist Jean-Michel Bérégovoy, who could not be maintained with the 23,15 % of the vote, preferred to make alliance with the socialist Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol.