Nuclear After another ballistic missile launch from North Korea on Friday, the G7 called for new sanctions against Pyongyang
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspects what he calls a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile at Pyongyang International Airport on Friday, Nov. 18, 2022. — UPI/Newscom/SIPA
- Since November, North Korea has fired a record number of missiles. Among them, its latest ICBM sent on Friday and whose potential range would allow it to reach the American continent.
- In response to this new provocation, the member countries of the G7 have called for new sanctions against the country which is already facing measures taken against it since 2005.
- Can sanctions still be effective against to a country determined to acquire nuclear force and use it in the event of an attack? Some answers with Marianne Péron-Doise, associate researcher at Iris and specialist in strategic issues in Asia.
Tension is rising between Western countries and North Korea. Since November, Pyongyang has tested a record number of missiles despite the warnings of the United States, Japan and South Korea. The latest: a ballistic missile that fell Friday in the Tokyo Exclusive Economic Zone, at western Hokkaido. This missile appears to be its latest ICBM from Pyongyang, with potential range that would allow it to hit the American mainland. A new provocation which triggered the worry on the other side of the globe, the member countries of the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Great Britain and the United States) calling for a new set of sanctions against the regime of Kim Jong-un.
Can this reaction succeed? Can it even be effective after years of Western sanctions against North Korea? How could Pyongyang react to the this new western blockage? Some answers with Marianne Péron-Doise, researcher associated with l’Iris (Institute of International and Strategic Relations), and specialist in strategic issues in Asia.
How to explain the acceleration of missile tests by Korea? e du Nord?
While shooting has resumed since 2021 after the breakdown of negotiations between Pyongyang and Washington, North Korea has increased tenfold. its ballistic missile tests in 2022, and particularly since October. According to a World count, this year, no less than 75 intercontinental and space missiles of short and medium range have been launched. drawn. And the situation is not on the way to resolution. “North Korea wants to upgrade an operational stage on its nuclear missiles,” 20 MinutesMarianne Péron-Doise who foresees “a nuclear launch at medium term”. Thus, the country ruled by Kim Jong-un wants to demonstrate his ability to to to hit US territory, with an increasing range of fire. In doing so, North Korea is trying to acquire a capacity for ballistic but also nuclear, first of all in a logic of deterrence.
But not only. “It’s no longer just about deterrence, it’s also about the ability to to to repel an attack and to win a war,” said Antoine Bondaz, director of the Korea & the Foundation for Strategic Research, in the World. In addition to this deterrent nuclear force, North Korea also wants to “normalize its nuclear force within the armed forces with specialized units” , adds Marianne Péon-Doise. “We are witnessing an affirmation and normalization of nuclear capabilities in the North Korean arsenal,” “This year, North Korea has improved its ballistic capabilities with the stated intention of developing a tactical nuclear program, has developed; Nicolas de Riviere, the permanent representative of France to the United Nations, on November 4th before the members of the Security Council. It is using increasingly aggressive nuclear rhetoric as highlighted in the September update of its nuclear doctrine”.
What sanctions are already aimed at North Korea?
For nearly twenty years, South Korea has been facing a Western sanctions. As early as 2006, the Security Council of the UN votes in particular to ban the export of luxury goods to North Korea, several financial assets are frozen and several personalities are prohibited from traveling to North Korea. abroad. Ten years later, significant restrictions on coal exports from North Korea, intended for largely to; China, are imposed, as an embargo on the export of copper, nickel, silver and zinc from the Asian country. The year 2016 marks the last round of sanctions taken against Pyongyang, even if some entities, including Following the example of the European Union, adopt other measures since, the complete list of which is at find on the website of the European Council. In summary, the Security Council of the United Nations has adopted nearly a dozen resolutions imposing sanctions on North Korea because of its activity; nuclear and missile fire since 2006.
Once again, the foreign ministers of the Group of Seven have declared Monday that repeated missile fire by North Korea “is further destabilizing the region, despite community calls international to peace and to stability.” The G7 statement then calls for “a united and robust response from the community” international, including the need for for the Security Council of the UN to take additional meaningful action.” The latter have not been detailed.
Can they be effective?
Facing these restrictions, North Korea was able to adapt. These sanctions “don’t have much power anymore. nuisance, especially in everything related to the exchange of goods,” notes Marianne Péron-Doise. Indeed, Pyongyang has managed to circumvent sanctions, as noted by the UN in a report published by the United Nations. on November 4th. Nicolas de Riviere writes: “North Korea circumvents the sanctions daily, by sea, but also via its cyberattacks which directly make it possible to finance its programs”. That”s why “we have to keep up the pressure and adapt it in some areas,” he adds.
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But North Korea, now accustomed to international sanctions, also seems to be tempted to exploit the current context which “could explain this renewed initiative in firing” analysis Marianne Péron-Doise. Assistant a hardening of the dialogue between China and the United States, North Korea “believes that it can benefit from impunity; more or less offered by Russia and China,” two members of the security council of the UN who could then vote against the sanctions, recalls the researcher associated with the Iris. Especially since all the sanctions adopted for years have not prevented North Korea to continue its nuclear development as well as the provocations against the West.
Other, in addition to the sanctions, the United States, Japan and Korea from the South put the package on the military pressure with joint exercises with increasingly sophisticated equipment. Another deterrence technique to make people understand; Pyongyang that if a red line is crossed, “there will be a fairly firm response,” notes Marianne Péron-Doise.