Putin’s forces already dominate 95% of Luhansk province. But there is evidence of fatigue in the troops and lack of equipment. Meanwhile, internal dissidence is on the rise
By
Gustavo Sierra
The moment of the artillery in the combats that are recorded in the Ukrainian Donbas. Image of a Russian tank advancing near Pokrovsk. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
Russian officials, scientists, intellectuals and political leaders are losing their fear and are beginning to speak out against the war. Boris Bondarev has resigned from his post at the Russian UN mission in Geneva. Previously it had been Igor Volobuyev, deputy chairman of Gazprombank. A list of those who support Putin and the war is circulating among the academics of the main Russian universities so that they are not chosen to enter the famous Academy of Sciences. The leader of the Communist Party caucus told a session of the local parliament in Vladivostok that “it is impossible to win the war in Ukraine, we have to end this that affects our young people.” He was expelled from the premises. and branded a traitor by the governor.
The information had circulated in recent days through the Telegram channels where Russian scientists drink and was confirmed by an investigation by the New York Times: the anti-war movement is growing among these intellectuals. The group of academic researchers is quietly working to prevent colleagues who have supported their country’s invasion of Ukraine from being elected to the prestigious Russian Academy of Sciences.
Arrest of a young Russian scientist in Moscow during one of the protests called by academics who oppose Putin. (Alexander Nemenov/AFP)
Belonging to this institution confers prestige and opens doors to universities and state-owned companies. The academy currently has about 1,900 Russian members and another 450 foreigners. Every three years new members are elected. The next count, which begins Monday, is for 309 seats, of which 92 are for senior academics and 217 for “corresponding members.” The competition is tough: more than 1,700 candidates applied.
Among the applicants there are some 300 who emphatically expressed their support for the invasion of Ukraine and signing letters and manifestos in favor of the invasion ordered by Vladimir Putin. In March, a pro-Kremlin solicitation appeared with the names of hundreds of high-ranking officials at Russian universities, most of whom are prominent administrators and not scientists. They soon received a heavy blow from their colleagues who issued an open letter of opposition to the invasion. More than 8,000 Russian scientists and science journalists signed it.
“Most of the scientific community is definitely against the war,” Alexander Nozik, a physicist at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, told the New York Times. “Being on a list like that could significantly reduce your chances of being elected.” He could also show that some acts of protest are still possible despite the government’s crackdown on dissent. and what there are many more intellectuals and officials within the Kremlin who oppose the warlike adventure that Vladimir Putin embarked on in the country.
Leonid Vasyukevich, leader of the Communist Party caucus in Vladivostok, who challenged the regime and rebuked the local governor for his support for the war. (prim.opora.ru)
A good example of what is happening was recorded in distant Vladivostok, on the Russian Pacific coast. In the local parliament, a group of politicians staged an unusual protest by interrupting the governor’s speech to denounce the invasion. “Three months from the start of the military operation have shown that it is impossible to succeed with military means,” said Leonid Vasyukevich, leader of the Communist Party caucus who is not part of the United Russia coalition that supports Putin but maintains his critical support for the regime and the war.
“More actions will mean more dead and wounded soldiers. We demand the immediate withdrawal of the Russian troops,” Vasyukevich continued, supported by several other legislators while Governor Oleg Kozhemyako shouted at him “Traitor!” and asked that his microphone be cut off. “You are discrediting the Russian army and our defenders who are fighting against the Nazis. Traitors”, the governor insisted. Vladivostok is 7,000 kilometers from Moscow and it is there that thousands of Ukrainians were deported during the Stalinist purges and where many of those who are now being expelled from the areas occupied by Russian forces are arriving.. He is also from one of the regions where the young soldiers fighting in Ukraine come from. In the last year there have been important demonstrations there against the Kozhemyako government and others led by a movement of mothers of children killed in the war.
Депутаты Приморского края потребовали прекратить “спецоперацию” in Ukraine. Депутат от фракции КПРФ Леонид Васюкевич во время заседания от лица четырех коллег зачитал обращение к президенту с требованием немедленного вывода войск с территории Украины.#Нетвойне #украина #россия pic.twitter.com/oZtvTMLSuo
— Activatica (@Activatica) May 27, 2022
Discontent rises among the Russian political elite as in eastern Ukraine the invading forces are at their best. They are advancing on almost all the fronts opened in the last few hours and soon could expel Ukrainian troops from the entire region of Luhansk province. They made steady and growing gains in the heavy fighting in recent days, although Ukrainian defenses remain generally effective.
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar admitted that the fighting was are currently at their “maximum intensity” compared to previous Russian assaults and that “they will probably continue to intensify.” The spokesman for the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Oleksandr Motuzyanyk, described the offensive of “temporary success”and stated that Ukrainian forces are using a maneuver defense to repel Russian advances in some key areas along the Donets River. However, the Russians already control 95% of the Luhansk oblast (region) and are very close to capturing the key city of Severodonetsk.
Sure it seems to be one of those classic Pyrrhic victories. “Russian forces have made several gains in the last week, but their offensive operations remain slow. They are very degraded and will have difficulty replacing new losses”, says the latest report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). A good example of this is that they ran out of modern tanks and had to dig up some left over from the Cold War.
Video of Russian military echelon with T62 tanks pic.twitter.com/wkhBoF1olF https://t.co/TSxZak9uG1 via @herooftheday10 #Ukraine
— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) May 25, 2022
The American Javelin missiles and the Anglo-Swedish NLAW (Next-generation Light Anti-tank Weapon) in the hands of the Ukrainian resistance managed to decimate Moscow’s arsenal of armored vehicles to such an extent. point that Russia had to resort to tanks designed more than 60 years ago. According to British intelligence, the Russian army has already lost 633 tanks and 1,144 armored cars.
Images posted on social media in recent days show aging T-62 tanks on rail cars heading to the front. The fact that Putin has had to resort to equipment that by most measures – bar quantity – would be considered totally obsolete speaks to the impact that stubborn Ukrainian resistance has had on Moscow’s equipment stock. “The T-62s are certain to be particularly vulnerable to anti-tank weapons and their presence on the battlefield highlights Russia’s shortage of modern, combat-ready equipment,” a senior British military officer told The Telegraph.
One of the Russian T-62 tanks captured by the Northern Alliance mujahideen in Afghanistan in 2001. REUTERS/Yannis Behrakis.
The T-62, a 41-tonne tank with a 115mm, built in the Soviet Union from 1961 to 1975. It was largely replaced as Moscow’s main battle tank when the T-72 entered service in 1969. Thousands of T -62 were practically dumped in military camps without any protection and many were given to the Syrian army since 2013.
Although over the years they were added and updated some equipment, such as additional armor or modern sights, the basic vehicle is “very tired”, military analysts say. “Ukrainian forces will not need to expend sophisticated and scarce Javelin or NLAW missiles to destroy them,” they emphasize. Older anti-tank missiles and even simple rocket-propelled grenades are likely to be more than enough to take these old behemoths from other wars out of the game.