The international price of soybeans continues with this price gathering Bullish, which has not stopped since August of last year. That day was no exception: Chicago market price jumped above $ 19 and settled at around $ 524 per ton in its contract that expires in March this year.
In this way, the benchmark contract for oilseeds this afternoon rose $ 19.38 to $ 523.7 per ton in the North American stock market. Thus, if this year is taken into account so far, the cereals, which stand by their derivatives as the most important export complex and generate the largest amount of foreign exchange for the country, have risen over US $ 41.3 per ton. Maximum prices since 2014.
The reasons for the price hikes center on the findings of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Grain Supply and Demand report. There, operators have discounted a new reduction in stocks or stocks in the North American country due to strong demand from China.
According to Grassi grain broker, Stores Final US soybeans were estimated in this report at 3.81 million tons, as expected by the market, and nearly 1 million tons behind what was calculated last month. Added to this was a new reduction in production estimates, going from 113.5 in December to 112.5 million tons, while operators expected a cut of only 200,000 tons.
Another factor that supported increased domestic demand for oilseeds for processing in the United States, as well as exports. According to the report, domestic consumption of crushing will increase by 200 thousand tons to 59.9 million tons, while shipments abroad will increase by 800 thousand tons to reach 60.7 million tons.
Regarding Argentina, the North American dependency lowered production forecasts by 2 million tons to 50 million tons, while it left the export estimate unchanged by 7 million tons. Globally, the data was not necessarily positive. Production decreased by 1.1 million tons to 361 million tons, but the most relevant data was in adjusting stocks, which is much higher than the market expected. According to the report, global inventories are estimated today at 84.3 million tons, while traders expected that they will reach 82.7 million tons.
Corn and wheat
Not only was the uptrend reversed in soybeans, but grains also rallied strongly in Chicago. Mid-session, after the release of the USDA report, corn prices rose by $ 9.84 to $ 203.63 per ton, while wheat advanced $ 11.30 to settle at $ 244.5 per ton.
In the case of yellow grains, the reduction in reliance on estimating production in the northern countries was surprising. According to its forecasts, the harvest will be at 360.2 million tons, which is about 8.3 million tons less than what was calculated in December and 7.4 million tons less than the market expected, which gives it a strong boost in the region. the prices. For Argentina, the lesson estimate has been reduced by 1.5 million tons to 47.5 million tons, due to drought.
For their part, the increases in wheat prices were supported by the reduction in global and US stocks. Thus, the final stocks were calculated at 313.2 million tons compared to 316.5 million tons in December due to the increased demand for grains. As for Argentina’s production, the forecast has been lowered by 500,000 tons to 17.5 million tons.
Seeding in Argentina
At the same time as agricultural commodities began to rise, the arid climate in Argentina stabilized, causing wheat hard to hit and also conditioning the natural development of coarse grains, especially corn and soybeans. As La Niña approaches, cuts to production estimates are almost inevitable in both crops (most important to dollar income) and open a question mark over the final outcome of the campaign.
Meanwhile, Sowing oilseeds in Argentina is going through a difficult process due to the lack of precipitation. In this regard, last week’s report issued by the Rosario Stock Exchange reflected that first-class soybeans in the core zone “lie between the end of the vegetative phase and the beginning of flowering. Specialists in this part of the cycle indicated that the crop closes the groove to take advantage of all the solar radiation.
“There is no rain, the stored water is not enough. The oilseeds begin to show symptoms of hydrothermal stress such as stunting and leaf loss,” they added. Between 10 to 20 days, depending on the region, soybeans enter the crop definition period and if there are no significant rains in the next 10 days, the potential yield will be affected. ”
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