NEW YORK (Reuters) – The world sugar market is expected to move from a deficit in the current season to a small surplus in 2021/22 (October-September), as production increases in countries like India and Thailand will offset a lower harvest at top producer Brazil, StoneX said Thursday.
The brokerage expects a surplus of 1.7 million tonnes in 2021/22 compared to the deficit of 3.7 million tonnes in 2020/21.
StoneX forecasts that India’s sugar production in 2021/22 will increase by 4.2% to 32 million tonnes, while it expects Thailand’s production to rebound 32% to 10 million tonnes. Good prices and favorable weather in both countries are boosting production.
Another significant increase is expected in the European Union plus the United Kingdom, a region that should produce 10.4% more sugar in 2021/22 despite frost damage in France.
The corridor sees Brazil’s south-central region producing 35.7 million tons of sugar in 2021/22 (April-March), a 7% drop from the previous harvest, due to drier than normal conditions.
World sugar production is estimated to grow 3.9% to 190.1 million tons, while demand will only increase 0.9% to 188.4 million tons.
StoneX said that if conditions related to the coronavirus pandemic improve in India, the world’s largest sugar consumer, it could revise its global demand figures.
(Report by Marcelo Teixeira; Edited in Spanish by Javier López de Lérida)