If the polling war in the province of Buenos Aires It was already generating controversy due to the dispersion of numbers, with studies (the majority) that predicted a triumph of the Front of All in the STEP of September 12 and others who predict that the sum lists of Together for Change, the last two polls accessed Clarion this week they bring a new seasoning: they forecast a almost exact tie among the representatives of the crack. A worrying scenario for the Government.
Surveys are from Federico Gonzalez Y Buenos Aires’ University. In the first case, it is a consulting firm that measured for Sergio Massa and in recent years continued to be linked to Peronism; the other is a work of the Observatory of Applied Social Psychology (OPSA) of the UBA. As both specified, they were not made for any particular candidate.
In the last month, Clarion published Buenos Aires surveys of seven different firms. Without projection of undecided, four hit the Front of All (Circuits, Ricardo Rouvier, Management & Fit and the National University of La Matanza), by between 5.1 and 11.7 points; and the remaining three to Together for Change (Jorge Giacobbe, Trends and Opinion), by between 3.5 and 8.2 points.
Victoria Tolosa Paz, Buenos Aires candidate of the FdT, with Santiago Cafiero and the mayor Mariano Cascallares.
In what they unanimously agreed (and so do these two new ones) is in the Diego Santilli’s advantage over Facundo Manesin the internal of the main opposition alliance.
As a parameter, in 2019, the Fernández won the presidential in the province of Buenos Aires for 16.3 points: 52.2% against 35.9% of Macri-Pichetto. While Kicillof won the governorship by 14.1: 52.4% vs. 38.3% of María Eugenia Vidal.
Tie 1: 27% the FdT vs. 26.9% JxC
Federico Gonzalez did a survey of 4,000 cases Between August 8 and 13, face-to-face and online mix, with +/- 1.58% margin of error. The report begins with the evaluation of the Buenos Aires residents of the Alberto Fernandez Y Axel Kicillof. Both ended with a negative balance: + 38.6% and – 42.2% for the president and + 35.9% and – 41% for the governor.
Then the images of the main candidates are detailed. Sorted by their positive weighting, they lead Santilli (+ 39.4% and – 17.7%) and Manes (32.8%), followed by Florencio Randazzo (32.2%), Jose Luis Espert (22.3%) and Nicolas del Caño (21.4%). Of the pro-government applicants, in addition to the scant support, the low level of ignorance is striking: 28.9% Victoria Tolosa Paz and 26.5% Daniel Gollan.
Regarding the intention to vote, in the first table, with 11.8% of “undecided” and 6.7% of “white”, there is an almost exact tie: 27% the list of Tolosa Paz against 26.9 % of the sum of Santilli (18.9%) and Manes (8%).
Of the rest of the candidates -compared with other polls-, the high number of Randazzo (9.5%). Then they come relatively even Espert (5.3%) and From the Caño (4.6%), and complete: Guillermo Moreno (2.4%), Cynthia hotton (1.4%), Juan José Gómez Centurion (1.3%), Miguel Saredi (1.1%) and Santiago Cuneo (1.1%).
When the projection is made without undecided or blank vote, Tolosa Paz rises to 33.1%, Santilli to 23.2% and Manes to 9.8%. By alliance, Frente de Todos 33% vs. Together for Change 33%. Randazzo, meanwhile, enters the double digits (11.7%).
Finally, unlike other surveys, Federico Gonzalez raises a stage for the general legislative of November 14, where he officialdom it keeps around 27 points and Together for Change, with Santilli as the only head of the list, falls to 22.5. Part of Manes’ votes, in that case, would go to Randazzo, who (even with undecided and white) grows to 12.9%.
Tie 2: 25.8% JxC vs. 25.7% the FdT
The UBA Psychology Observatory surveyed 2,711 cases online between August 12 and 16, with a +/- 1.9% margin of error. Also shows boot a evaluation of the procedures, with an even more negative balance: Fernández + 37% and – 63%, and Kicillof + 39% and – 61%.
Regarding the voting intention, the first filter is for “political space” and there The seal of the Frente de Todos prevails: 27% against 23% of Together for Change. Although the highest percentage is held by the undecided, with 28%.
The variants with the candidates are offered below. And again an almost total parity is seen: 25.8% between Santilli (14.1%) and Manes (11.7%) against 25.7% of Tolosa Paz. In this case, Espert is third with 7.7% and Randazzo fourth with 4.9%. And hit the Left Front (3.6% of Del Caño + 0.7% of Alejandro Bodart).
When the undecided are projected, the Frente de Todos rises to 36.1% and Juntos por el Cambio to 35.7% (Santilli 19.5% and Manes 16.2%). They complete Espert 8.7%, Randazzo 5.5% and Del Caño 3.8%.