The general election will take place in four weeks. While the SPD continues to soar, the Union and the Greens are getting worse and worse in surveys.
Berlin / Munich – On September 26th, the Germans elect a new Bundestag. The election campaign is still in the hot phase because it could be exciting in four weeks. In the meantime, Olaf Scholz overtook the Union with the SPD. Meanwhile, it has the lowest values that survey institutes have ever measured. The pressure on Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet is increasing.
Even after the first major chancellor triumph on TV, the Union was unable to recover from its descent. According to a survey by Constituency forecast the Christian Democrats are even below the 20 percent mark for the first time. According to the survey, the Union would only come to 19.5 percent in the federal election. Compared to the last survey, that would be a loss of 2.5 percentage points.
New poll numbers: SPD flying high, Greens dangerously close to fourth place
The SPD, on the other hand, continues to increase its poll numbers. Compared to the last constituency forecast poll of August 18, the party was able to gain five percentage points and would come to 27 percent. The Greens are currently with a loss of two percentage points to 15.5 percent. This means that the party of Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock is only 2 percentage points ahead of the FDP with 13.5 percent, which increased in votes again compared to the last survey.
According to the constituency forecast, the AfD would reach 10.6 percent in the Bundestag election, while the left would have to tremble a little at 6.5 percent about entering the Bundestag. But the survey results show that, as things stand, a red-red-green government would be quite possible.
According to current surveys, the SPD is ahead in 13 of the 16 federal states. Only Bavaria would remain safe for the Union – in the hands of the sister party CSU. In contrast, Baden-Württemberg and Saxony are fiercely contested. In the green-ruled state of Baden-Württemberg, the Greens, SPD and CDU are close together – with a slight advantage for the Greens. In Saxony, the AfD is just ahead, followed by the SPD and CDU.
Constituency forecast survey for the federal election: Scholz with a clear lead
The situation is also similar with the K question. SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz can do that Constituency forecast according to his lead. 43 percent of those questioned consider him a suitable chancellor. CDU boss Laschet loses another five percentage points and ends up in third place with 10 percent, which he shares with FDP top candidate Christian Lindner. Just ahead of this is the Green leader Annalena Baerbock, who is preferred as Chancellor by 11 percent of those surveyed.
For the survey of Constituency forecast 2,340 citizens entitled to vote were surveyed via an online panel between August 30 and 31. Other institutes make similar forecasts, but the gap between the SPD and the Union has never been so great in any survey.
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