POLITICAL ELECTORAL POLLS TODAY 19 JULY 2021
POLITICAL ELECTORAL POLLS TODAY –The latest Monitor Italia survey, carried out by Tecnè with Agenzia Dire, with interviews carried out on July 16 on a sample of a thousand cases, shows a new leap forward for Giorgia Meloni’s party. This week Brothers of Italy is growing in consensus, removing potential votes from Matteo Salvini’s League, which in any case confirms itself as the first Italian party.
Fratelli d’Italia recorded a +0.2 per cent in the last seven days, reaching an overall 20.8 per cent; on the other hand, the Lega fell (-0.2 per cent), now at 20.2 per cent. The Democratic Party is in third place (+0.1 percent in the last week) with a potential pool of 19.7 percent.
The most important decline in the last seven days was recorded by the M5s (-0.3 percent) which dropped to 14.8 percent, despite Beppe Grillo and Giuseppe Conte having reached an agreement on the new statute in recent days, and seem willing to put aside the disagreements.
Further down we find Forza Italia 9 percent (-0.1 percent), Action 3.3 percent (+0.1 percent), Italia Viva 2.1 percent (+0.1 percent), Sinistra Italiana 2 percent (+0.1 percent), Art.1 1.8 percent (+0.1 percent), Greens 1.5 percent (-0.1 percent), + Europe 1.5 percent one hundred (-0.1).
How surveys are done
The electoral and political polls are carried out by opinion polling societies respecting very specific scientific criteria. The authors of the surveys must identify a sample to be interviewed that is sufficiently large and representative of the population to be analyzed. In the case of polls on voting intentions for parties or the confidence index of political leaders, therefore, the interviewees must adequately represent the Italian population of age, those who have the right to vote and who go to the polls.
This work is done to minimize the margin of error and make the detection as reliable as possible. Usually a political-electoral poll is considered reliable if the indicated margin of error is 3 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval. It is precisely that of identifying a representative sample of the population that is the greatest difficulty for pollsters. Interviews for political electoral polls are usually conducted with a Cati methodology, by telephone, or Cawi, via the Internet, or mixed. To carry out the interviews, opinion polling companies rely on specialized companies.
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