The fighting is concentrated in about 120 kilometers on both banks of the river. Russian forces attempt to encircle the Ukrainian defense in the city of Sievierodonetsk. A siege similar to that of Mariupol is expected
By
Gustavo Sierra
Effects of the Russian bombardment on the nitrogen plant that stands on the Donets River between the cities of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychans. (AFP)
The still waters of the Siverskiy Donets River cross the entire coal and industrial zone of the Ukrainian Donbas. It starts on the Russian side, near Belgorado, crosses the border, crosses the strategic districts of Kharkiv (Ukrainian second city), Donetsk and Luhansk to return again to the Russian city of Rostov, converge with the Don and flow into the Sea of Azov. . It was a natural barrier to conquer during World War II, it was in the first Donbas war in 2014 and it is again now in this Russian invasion. It is about 120 kilometers from the Donets, as the Ukrainians simplify it, who became the center of the fighting that they will determine the success or failure of Russia’s campaign in the rich industrial zone of eastern Ukraine and define the war.
The Russians suffered a terrible defeat ago two weeks when they tried to cross the Donets. They lost an entire division of tanks, assault tanks and other armored vehicles. There were 73 in total. And with them fell two infantry battalions with dozens of pontoon engineers who were trying to build a bridge for the tanks to cross. They speak of 400 deaths. It happened near the city of Sievierodonetsk, which is on the eastern shore compared to its twin Lysychansk, on the western side. Several Russian units are now heading there, leaving the siege of the city of Kharkiv – where they also failed in their attempt to take it – and are concentrating on this new axis to try to keep the entire industrial region of Donbas, the strawberry of the dessert that Vladimir Putin wants so much.
The small city of Sievierodonetsk is mainly known for its fertilizer plant. In 1935, Soviet planners built a huge ammonium nitrate factory on the riverbank that supplied the entire Soviet Union. In July 1942 Nazi German troops occupied the city until in February of the following year the Red Army managed to expel them. The plant was rebuilt and transformed into an important chemical industry called Azot (nitrogen)with a structure of 17,000 square meters. With the independence of Ukraine, Azot became the largest chemical plant in Eastern Europe.
A bridge built by Russian engineers for the passage of a column of tanks over the Siverskiy Donets river destroyed by Ukrainian artillery. They lost 73 tanks and armored vehicles. (Min. Defense Ukraine)
Sievierodonetsk was already under the rule of pro-Russian forces for two months in 2014. They freed themselves from the invaders. But since then it has remained the obsession of the Kremlin generals. It was attacked on February 28, four days after the invasion began in the north. And since then it has been constantly bombarded. On March 2 they were about to break through the defenses, but reinforcements arrived from the Ukrainian lines and the Russians had to withdraw. It took the Russians more than a month of intense fighting to conquer the villages around the city of about 100,000 inhabitants, until on May 10 they tried to cross the convoy of tanks that they had accumulated on the other side of the river. They failed. Since then, they try a new concentration for the final assault.
“The enemy has focused its efforts on carrying out an offensive to encircle Lisychansk and Sievierodonetsk,” said Serhiy Gaidai, governor of Luhansk, where the two cities are one of the last remaining Ukrainian territories in that province. “The intensity of the fire over Sievierodonetsk has multiplied, they are simply destroying the city ,” he said on television, adding that there were some 15,000 people trapped.
But the Ukrainian forces are not giving up. Correspondents who arrived in the area yesterday saw a long column of armored vehicles, tanks, rocket launchers and buses carrying soldiers heading to the front. Until the closing of this chronicle, Sievierodonetsk resisted. Further west, in Slovyansk, another of the Donbas’s largest cities still in Ukrainian hands, anti-aircraft sirens wail constantly. But people no longer run to the shelters. Continue shopping or take the kids to school until the shots are heard. They got used to the bombing and are tired of spending whole nights underground because of a false alarm.
Attack on the small town of Rubizhne, on the Donets River, where there is a concentration of Russian troops.
In nearby Lyman, on the front lines, things are different. The Russians are at the gates of the city and the few civilians who remain are waiting crouched for the arrival of some buses to evacuate them. Anyway, everything there is very unstable. They say that Ukrainian soldiers liberated the town of Toshkivka, south of Sievierodonetsk. But pro-Russian separatists took control of Svitlodarsk. One of those draws that taste like defeat for all sides.
It shows that the Russian army finally accepted the reality that it does not have the necessary strength to fight in too many places at the same time. He is now concentrating all his efforts in an area of about 120 kilometers around the Donets with three cities in mind: Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Sievierodonetsk. His goal is to surround the Ukrainian forces. To achieve this, he first has to take five routes that connect these cities and give them an exit to the rear. According to the New York Times, a huge Russian force has massed near Izium and regularly sends units down the main road towards Sloviansk. The railroad tracks that connect with Kyiv pass through there and where all the supplies arrive. Artillery shells frontline villages, tanks pound Ukrainian defenses, and attack helicopters fly overhead. Both sides suffered heavy casualties, but Russia failed to overwhelm the Ukrainian fighters, who have been holding their positions for weeks.
Kremlin generals are employing the same tactics they used in Syria to capture under-staffed towns and villages: a brutal barrage of heavy artillery and rocket fire until all infrastructure is destroyed. Just afterwards, the infantry advances. They have already learned the lesson of the mistakes made in the northern campaign when they wanted to take Kyiv in just a few days. They don’t have the soldiers needed for an urban campaign.
As the easternmost city still under Ukrainian control, Sievierodonetsk is exposed to Russian artillery from several sides. The shelling destroyed large areas of the city and civilians have been left without electricity or running water. The mayor said they expect a siege similar to the one Mariupol suffered. Ukrainian troops are likely to hold on to Sievierodonetsk for as long as they can, while inflicting as many losses as possible on the Russian military.
If more troops are not enlisted in the Ukrainian forces, the time that Russia can continue advancing is limited. The further Russian troops advance, the longer their supply lines will be and the more exposed they will be to Ukrainian counter-attacks, so Russia has to reposition troops to defend the territory it has already won.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu justified the slow progress of the operations by saying that “Russian forces want to give civilians the opportunity to be evacuated”, unaware that his forces targeted civilians throughout the war and repeatedly denied Ukrainian attempts to negotiate humanitarian evacuation corridors. In any case, it is the first time that Russia has admitted that its troops are advancing at a very slow pace and that they are stuck in Donbas . For that sincerity, Shoigu received a barrage of criticism on Russian social media from pro-Putin nationalists. “Soviet troops would not have cared if the “Nazi” civilians were evacuated,” said a certain Igor who also accused the Kremlin of not doing enough to win the war in Ukraine.
Ukrainian army soldiers in the front line of fire near the town of Novoluhanske in the Donets region. REUTERS/Gleb Garanich
The director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergey Naryshkin, stated that the ultimate goal of the Russian offensive is “to ensure that Nazism is 100% eradicated, or it will reappear in a few years, and in an even uglier form”. “Statements by Naryshkin and Shoigu indicate that Russian officials are likely setting the stage for a protracted war in Ukraine, in order to justify slower and more measured progress than initially envisioned,” it is the interpretation of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russia has limited scope to restore momentum and make significant progress. Afterwards, it may be forced into more defensive positions, and the war could drift into a stalemate. With troops and equipment dwindling, the battle for Donbas is likely to be the last major offensive of the war. war.