The European Commissioner for the Economy, Paolo Gentiloni, and the Second Vice President for the Economy, Nadia Calviño.REUTERS
The Spanish recovery continues to gain momentum in line with the good rate of vaccination. Brussels will raise this Wednesday the growth forecast for Spain’s gross domestic product (GDP) to 6.2%. According to community sources, the arrival of community funds also explains why economic expansion is more bulky this year, specifically, three tenths higher thanor planned by the European Commission just two months ago. The rebound will continue next year, when the economy will grow by 6.3%, five tenths less than what was contemplated until now.
The growth of Spain will be at the head of the large economies in 2021 and 2022, after the pandemic in 2020 made a dent in the country, taking 10.8% of GDP. The Commission’s forecasts have been improving as restriction measures have been lifted, domestic demand is recovering and tourist areas can start up again. The acceleration in vaccination campaigns in the EU is once again key, although the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has expressed concern about the finding that immunization is progressing at different rates in the EU.
Spain is set to be one of the main beneficiaries of the epidemiological improvement, although the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) already draws a map of the EU almost entirely in green, except the Iberian Peninsula, in which the red of some of its tourist areas stands out. For example, the Belgian Minister of Health, Frank Vandenbroucke, this week advised against traveling to Catalonia or Portugal without having received the two doses of vaccine.
The forecasts that the European Commission will publish this Wednesday only reflect the growth forecast for Spain and inflation. Everything indicates, however, that Brussels continues to give optimism to the recovery process. Especially when next week the EU Council will in all probability give the green light to the first 12 recovery plans, including Spain. Community sources assured that, for now, no country has imposed important observations on the plans presented by other countries, not even the Spanish. The Council also plans to call another meeting at the end of the month to bless the remaining plans.
That means that Spain will receive about 9,000 million euros in pre-financing this summer. If he finally manages to show that he has met the milestones and objectives set out in his plan for this year, in December he will get another 10 billion. Spain, however, has much more room to grow. Community sources maintain that, in case of carrying out its entire reform plan, the Spanish GDP could grow up to 10% in the entire period of execution of the plan.
The improvement of Brussels is in line with most institutions. The Bank of Spain improved its forecasts for 2021, 2022 and 2023 last June due to the improvement in the health front, the economic prospects of neighboring countries and the arrival of European resources. The supervisor foresees a rise in GDP identical to Brussels for this year (6.2%) and somewhat smoother for 2022 (5.8%).