The world has entered a coronavirus pandemic full of inequality and will leave it with more. Much more? This depends on how quickly each country is leaving. This depends, without much return, on vaccination.
In a vicious circle that is increasingly difficult to break, Departure date will be the greatest disparity It will in turn be based on another inequality: inequality of resources. This is evidenced by the number of countries that dazzled the world with their quantity and rate of vaccination, From Israel to the United States. The economy matters, but analyzing immunization progress in the world raises surprises that are more related to planning than money.
1. When will the epidemic end in the country?
IsraelAnd Great Britain, Chile, the United Arab Emirates, Germany and even United State That in its beginnings it was chaotic, deceived by herd immunity For the third quarter of 2021, as long as the vaccine guarantees the longest protection possible and completes it. The daily rate of vaccination allows them.
Far from them in wealth, reach, and logistical capacity, The world’s poorest countries depend on international organizations to obtain their vaccinesIt was only in 2023 that they were able to vaccinate its population on a large scale and will cross the herd immunity threshold in 2024, according to the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization, an international alliance to obtain vaccines. They are the countries of Africa and Southeast Asia. The majority of them did not even start dosing.
What about Argentina? Where will the current vaccination rate take you? When is the date of the dream of herd immunity? Or if it is too far away, what will be the day when at-risk groups, the elderly, and key and strategic employees (about 15,500,000 people, according to official numbers) are vaccinated?
Argentina today uses 84,735 doses per day, to me Average daily vaccination From the past seven days (until the day before yesterday). If this rate is maintained, those over 15.5 million people will be vaccinated with two doses in 342 days – taking into account those who have already been vaccinated – that is, at the end of February 2022.
Herd immunity may take much longer at this rate. To these 15.5 million people, at least 16 million more must be added, to reach 70% of the Argentine population (including those under the age of 18), one of the steps the World Health Organization (WHO) has assessed for herd immunity. . They will be, then, 32 million doses and 377 days. The country will reach this threshold around March 23, 2023, in two years’ time.
The government of the President Alberto Fernandez Promises the arrival of new doses of Sputnik V, Sinopharm and AstraZeneca and vaccines designated by Covax It would allow an acceleration and expansion of the vaccination rate over approximately 85,000 daily vaccinations To cover a large portion of Argentines by the end of the year. The promise is as great as it is vague; And it is repeated too.
The first seasons of the vaccination promise arrived in December, but were not fulfilled. The goal of the number and time of immunization has been reduced as the arrival of vaccines by the Aesthetic Institute and AstraZeneca is delayed. Despite this significant delay, Argentina managed to accelerate the vaccination rate in March: a month ago, the average daily rate was 19,401 doses per day.
2. Is efficiency just a financial issue?
The country was among the first countries in the world in December to launch a global vaccination, It started in January, and it already had more neighboring countries, including Brazil, Chile and Uruguay, all of the economies that suffered less from the impact of the epidemic than Argentina.. For the Fernandez government, which has boasted a lot about the comparison between the local health department and the health department in other countries, this was auspicious news, especially in a year of elections and the pandemic. The illusion, however, was short-lived. Lack of resources, planning, logistics and communications hampered the road.
Compare Argentina with Chile, Which has global vaccination records, or Uruguay, Which was vaccinated in two weeks with the same percentage of the population as ours in nearly three months, it may not have been very productive. Despite the fact that the three countries share region, culture and language, they have economies of varying degrees of progress.
Chile and Uruguay are high-income countries, according to the World Bank. Argentina does not, and it has fewer resources.
After several political crises. a Zero growth nodesDouble poverty, less job opportunities and less investment; Continuous exchange-rate earthquakes and many other falls in the event of default, the country is one notch lower. It is among the upper middle income countries.
This lack of resources, this inequality between developing nations that is not confined to this corner of the planet can explain Failures and Delays in the Argentine Vaccination Plan. This may be the explanation, but it is not necessarily.
The World Bank defines upper-middle income countries as those in which annual per capita income ranges from $ 4,045 to $ 12,500. It is a diverse group of 59 countries ranging from Tuvalu, Morocco and Kazakhstan to Iran, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa. There are also two world powers. China and Russia; Its GDP is among the ten largest countries in the world, but when it comes to distributing it among its residents, they lose the advantage. They are fading alongside the richest countries, such as the United States, Japan or Germany.
Despite all your troubles, Argentina, with a per capita income of $ 11,390 (2019), tops the middle-income country ranking with Costa Rica, although it won’t be long before China takes the lead. It is also the best ranked country on the United Nations’ Human Development Index, based on four variables, including life expectancy, which are closely related to the strength of access to health.
Is Argentina also the number one vaccination site among middle-income countries? He did it in January, however With the passage of months and the delay in arrival of the doses in the country and the acceleration of vaccination in other countries, the country also began to fall back in this ranking., As it already did before its regional neighbors.
Review data on a detailed basis Our world in data Shows that the Argentina topped the vaccination arrangement in January, along with powerful China and Russia, both of which are vaccine producers. In early February, SerbiaFearing another brutal outbreak like the one that happened in the middle of the year, it hurriedly bought vaccines and took first place, backed by Turkey. Argentina, already delayed due to insufficient production of Sputnik V and AstraZeneca problems, moved up to sixth place. This week, as more and more countries launch their vaccination plans, Argentina fell to 10th.
It was overtaken not only by larger economies and more resources such as China, Russia, Brazil or Turkey, but also by Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic.The smaller countries that share with our country the structural problems that have made Latin America one of the hotspots of the Coronavirus poverty, The overcrowding And the Unofficial.
3. The surprise of the group
Besides these two countries, Another country is showing that a sustainable, effective and widespread vaccination plan does not depend solely on the availability of economic resources Or a solid health system.
Morocco, West, sunset, Which has an annual per capita income of nearly a quarter of Argentina’s income, is not only the most vaccinated country in Africa, but also the second largest number of doses among upper-middle-income countries, after Serbia. She started vaccinating in February and has already applied 13.5 doses per 100 people; Argentina four years. It is a far cry from powerful economies like Israel or Great Britain, but it stands out among countries with fewer resources.
sum It already has 8.5 million vaccines from AstraZeneca and SinopharmA number that is not sufficient to cover its population of 36 million, but sufficient for essential and strategic employees, the elderly and young workers.
How did Morocco do it? With planningMore planning, more planning. And also Anticipation and regulation.
“I would say that The secrets were getting the doses on time, mimicking vaccines and never giving up on traceability“, Explained to LA NACION, Morocco’s ambassador to Argentina, Faris Yasser.
Last August, the government began negotiating with laboratories, and in September, it launched intensive and intensive vaccination training in hospitals and private centers to test distribution, logistics and advocacy. Measure times and assess potential complications. From firefighters and doctors to thousands upon thousands of ordinary citizens.
In November, The health care system “I was ready to start the vaccination,” Yasser said. The government has never released the restrictions, the night curfews remain in effect, and in the event of an outbreak, targeted closures apply..
With its absolute focus on the vaccination process, the government aims to protect the health of Moroccans and the vitality of the economy, which has tripled in the past twenty years, based on its openness to investment and foreign trade, and made it possible to reduce poverty. And increased study rates and life expectancy.
As Morocco shows, the irony of vaccination is that it is conditional on inequalityEspecially those that get doses that are often monopolized by rich countries, while at the same time they are a weapon to combat them or at least prevent them from growing. Resources are needed, but also design and organization.
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