“The cases of” coronavirus “infection are increasing in several European countries (but not in the US or Canada) in the middle of summer. And immediately the ‘seasonality deniers’ start in fourth place with their fingers raised (just like the no-vax left in fourth after the first cases of vaccine thrombosis). Because it is evident that asking certain subjects to think calmly and without bias is like asking a wild boar to eat with a fork “. The virologist Guido Silvestri, a professor at Emory University in Atlanta, analyzes the rise of Covid infections despite the summer temperatures by looking “at what is happening, at the things we know and do not know, and above all at those to reflect on, in a calm, reasonable and above all scientific way. “.
In a post on Facebook provocatively titled ‘But wasn’t it said it was a seasonal virus?’, This is the first consideration of the founding scientist of the social page ‘Pills of optimism’: “The seasonal effect on respiratory viruses, including human coronaviruses , has been well known for decades to anyone who knows the subject, and denying it is senseless. How exactly this effect involves Sars-CoV-2, and especially the Delta variant, highly transmissible, we do not know (and we will see soon), but the 2020 data on the ‘original’ virus indicate an important effect. Remember also that seasonality does not have a ‘black vs white’ effect, just as not all smokers get lung cancer. “
The second reflection is that “the European reopening of April / May were followed by enormous gatherings” and “massive transfers” between countries, “often linked to the ‘itinerant’ European football championship”, Silvestri observes, inviting to deepen with studies to hoc the possible European-effect on the trend of infections in the Old Continent.
Third point, “the effect of vaccines in separating cases of Sars-CoV-2 infection with hospitalizations and deaths from Covid-19 seems quite evident – remarked the Italian virologist in force in the US – and this is exactly what we are we expect the vaccines we are using and the way we use them. As mentioned in the past, we must continue to monitor this aspect with extreme attention, together with the incidence of new infections and especially serious illness between vaccinated vs non-vaccinated “.
Finally, “we keep in mind that certain effects can add up and / or cancel each other in a very complex and difficult to decipher way – highlights Silvestri – with on the one hand the reopening, the gatherings and the ‘Delta effect’ to push towards an increase of cases, and on the other hand vaccines and seasonality that push in the opposite direction. The net result of these effects, at the level of infections and / or deaths, could be different from country to country, and in any case will be seen in the coming weeks “.