It handles a more disruptive discourse and proposals compared to the current economic model, many of its solutions end up giving a more active role to the State as an agent of the economy. One of its basic premises is the transition from an extractive oil and coal economy to one focused on agricultural productivity: its first step has been the controversial proposal to cease contracting oil exploration in Colombia.
In addition, it would implement an agrarian reform seeking to reduce unproductive land in the country, through the creation of a multipurpose cadastre that would increase the property tax on large estates with more than 500 fertile hectares that do not produce. With this He wants one of three things to happen: activate production on his land, pay the corresponding taxes, or, ultimately, sell it to the State so that it, in turn, delivers it to rural communities.
But it has two problems, the first is that it is seen as an unbalanced exercise, very focused on everything that the State will have to spend, but with very little focus on how it is going to increase its resources to cover it; moreover, with the proposal for oil exploration it would reduce income. The second problem is that increasing the size of the State is a policy that is later very difficult to reverse, and a larger State carries the danger of increasing the already existing problems of corruption.
One element that must be taken into account, regardless of the candidate that is elected for the Presidency, is that they are going to have to face a Congress without a clear majority for any party, which can be a significant barrier when making major reforms that involve modifying or approving laws. Typically, the governments that face this type of distribution in Congress must be very skillful in achieving alliances that allow them to approve their projectss, and this is something to follow very closely, especially when the end of this year and the beginning of 2023, when precisely the projects of the elected government will begin to be presented.
*Gregorio Gandini is an economist with a master’s degree from the Javeriana University and a specialist in Capital Market of the Universidad del Rosario, is the founder of Gandini Analysis. Podcaster, columnist and analyst for media. University professor, with more than fifteen years of experience in the financial sector, both public and private, where he has held positions, in areas of market risk, regulatory development and financial market analysis.