On the second of December of last year, a month and a half ago, this was the last round of exchange in which the central bank sold foreign currencies to meet market demand.
Certainly Suppression of imports Of the goods classified as luxury goods with a higher percentage of Export settlement Agriculture – along with the highest international prices since 2014 – the monetary authority has pledged to: Dollar repurchase process In the market to increase your reserves.
During the month of December, the entity that chairs Michelangelo Pesci Acquired $ 608 Million US Dollars He added that because of its interference in the exchange rate, while it was so far in January – according to official data and private estimates – Another US $ 520 million, Including about five million admitted on Monday.
The purchase of foreign currencies in the wholesale market also contributed to a Improving the stock of reserves international.
The balance in favor of BBK interventions and the increase in deposit stock explain the recent growth in reserves
Reserves grow around the course of the first month of the year $ 400 Million US DollarsAfter it increased $ 758 Million USD in December.
However, this circumstantial improvement cannot hide a worrying phenomenon, which is the deterioration of the stock of dollars in reserves, after about $ 20.938 million left the body’s coffers in 2019, and another $ 5439 million in the total in 2020.
It also helped store A. Seasonal increase in dollar depositsMost of these investments are accounted for in the financial system as reserves.
With the focus on dollar deposits from the private sector, December was marked by a strong influx of foreign currency into the financial system, as it grew in the final month of the year, marked by seasonality. $ 1,281 Million US Dollars, Which is an average of $ 71 million in revenue per day. He explained that this was largely due to the exemption from personal assets for funds deposited in savings banks Portfolio of personal investments.
This trend began to reverse at the beginning of 2021, with Private deposits flowed abroad by about 200 million USD, With official data available through January 13.
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What is expected for the coming months? “We will continue to monitor BCRA purchases Reserves are one of the weakest components For the government in terms of the economy, as well as the most sensitive. Although BCRA was taking back foreign currency on the exchange market – with strong restrictions on imports, stocks, and more – Reserves remain scarce and a change in direction would be bad news Personal Portfolio said.
“At present , High clearance of grain It helped the cash entity, which has contributed more than $ 980 million USD so far in January. The financial advisor added that the largest supply of agricultural exports is expected to continue with the price of corn and soybeans jumping to record levels, with increases of 12% and 10%, respectively.
The stock of imports and agricultural liquidation will be a major factor in maintaining the increase in reserves until the second quarter, which focuses on the trade surplus.
With regard to imported stocks, the Close access to official currencies for luxury goods Announced January 6 – outlines the positions reached in the Mercosur Common Nomenclator, involving a monthly global sum of $ 300 million in final goods status and $ 25 million in luxury goods
For Walter Morales, Head of the consulting firm WISE, “in mid-November there were about $ 5 billion in unrefined exports and that’s what we notice. We cannot talk about the process of accumulating reserves Because the only income is from the trade balance. It is logical because when there are obstacles to transfer or free purchase, there is no entry for foreign currency. “
Morales noted that,The government aims to reach March Without adjusting the exchange rate, the month the reserves start to grow due to Entry of harvest begins (Soybeans and thick corn). Have we arrived in March? There is a lot to go in BCRA is required to sell futures and reserves and step on imports and sell bonds Against the peso and repurchase against the dollar, the development of the dollar linked And the Difficult Dollar toroll(Renewal) Maturity dates in pesos. All this without liquid reserves. It is heading in the right direction, but a credible financial plan is needed. A programmatic agreement with the International Monetary Fund could succeed, along with a commitment from the government’s political wing.
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