British Prime Minister Boris Johnson proposed to President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky create a new international alliance that will oppose Russia and become an alternative to the EU. The new alliance will bring together countries united by distrust of Brussels, as well as dissatisfied Germany’s response to Russian aggression. Oleksandr Kraev, an expert at the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council, told Apostrophe about why the UK and Boris Johnson personally needed a new alliance with Ukraine, whether Kyiv needs it, and whether an alternative to the EU is real for Ukraine.
There are many questions about the news about the “Commonwealth”, which Johnson allegedly wants to create, because the British at the official level support Ukraine’s entry into the European Union. Therefore, it is illogical to make an official confrontation with the EU. We already had a London-Warsaw-Kyiv union, and then everyone said that it would become an alternative for the EU, but he did not position himself that way. I am also not sure that in the final version such an association will position itself as an alternative to the EU. Rather, it will be something like the Visegrad Four, where the motto was “we want one of our countries to join the EU and we will help it in this.” In addition, it should be understood that we already have the London-Warsaw-Kyiv axis mentioned above, then why are we talking about a new union if we could expand the old one? So there are a lot of inconsistencies here.
However, there is a certain logic in such a project. Why this initiative to Johnson? He is now entering a new stage of conflict with the EU, and in a rather tough phase. This applies both to the issue of the Irish border, which was never resolved, and the trade agreement with the EU, which was never created, and the fisheries pact. In fact, now the UK wants to withdraw from the Northern Ireland Protocol, to which the EU responds that this will mean withdrawing from the Brexit treaty. That is, there is a complete break in everything that has been signed over the past 5 years on this topic. And here the question arises that such steps will completely destroy all relations between the EU and the UK, which means they need to negotiate somehow. It follows that Johnson needs to build his “deck” for the new game. That is, he needs to recruit his adherents and allies throughout Europe so that he has the support and the team with which to confront Brussels. Because Poland also has issues with Brussels, for example, issues with the Constitutional Court and the delimitation of national and European law, and so on. We have a question for Brussels: where is our candidate status and where is our membership in the EU? That is, we see that this project is beneficial for Johnson, since it fits into his geopolitics.
At the same time, it should be understood that now in the UK, foreign policy is the only thing that everyone praises Johnson for. Even the opposition cannot tell him that he is wrong on this track. Therefore, one more initiative – plus one point in Johnson’s political piggy bank. The fact is that the British Prime Minister has already been clearly told by his fellow party members, namely the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, that as soon as Ukraine wins, Johnson should resign. This does not mean that Johnson will delay the victory, because the British evaluate success a little differently. For them, success is the liberation of territory, sanctions and pressure on Russia, new allies. Johnson understands that if there is no victory, he will retire even faster. In fact, Johnson was told that his only chance to keep his place was to show a very successful case in Ukraine and in foreign policy in general, which would out-compete domestic politics in terms of information and quality, and Johnson is well aware of this.
For us, the British proposal is also beneficial, because it is about uniting the countries that help us the most, because all the countries that are voiced as participants in this initiative are in the top five in helping Ukraine as a percentage of their GDP. That is, we will receive even more assistance, which will be more coordinated, which is very important. And of course, this will be an indicator that Russia has someone to resist. That is, there will no longer be such a story as with the EU, when it is announced that there is a 6th package of sanctions, but they cannot accept it. In this case, we will talk about the fact that there are a number of countries that can accept certain restrictions within a few hours. That is, for us, and for the British, Poles and Baltics, this is a rather profitable initiative.
Among other things, this initiative is quite viable. If, again, we recall the London-Warsaw-Kyiv format, which was founded before the war, we can note the statements of Andrzej Duda that trade has already increased within this format, and Johnson said that this is a political outpost of Great Britain. This association is viable for one simple reason – there is a pragmatic political interest on all sides. The British see geopolitics in this, the Poles see it as a confrontation with the EU, and the Ukrainians see the prospects for EU membership. And here lies the answer to the question of whether this initiative will become an alternative to the European Union. The fact is that the British, along with the rest of the alleged participants in the initiative, signed a declaration that they support Ukraine’s accession to the EU, and Britain said that despite Brexit, they are not against Ukraine’s membership in the EU. In other words, for Ukraine, this is also a step into the EU. In essence, the new UK initiative will be more of a facilitator of our EU membership than a substitute for it.