Sardinia, Sicily and Veneto at risk of the yellow zone. With the summer now entering the heart of tourism and travel and the desire for recovery, “however, we must keep an eye on the silent awakening of the pandemic, which records an increase in new cases (13 new cases per 100,000) and positivity (1 patient out of 33 new subjects tested) and the risk of some regions to return to yellow. Currently the region with the greatest risk of entering the yellow zone is Sardinia (0.32 on a scale from 0 to 1), followed by Sicily (0.31) and Veneto (0.24); on the contrary, the region with the lowest risk of entering the yellow zone is Valle d’Aosta (0.04), followed by Basilicata, province of Trento and Puglia at 0, 08. The national average risk of becoming yellow is currently 0.18 “. This is indicated by the latest Instant Report Covid-19 of the High School of Economics and Management of the health systems of the Catholic University.
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The forecasts, it says, “are the result of a new indicator that measures the risk of regions entering the yellow zone by considering the number of new cases at a certain time in a given region and at the same time the number of people vaccinated in that region. This indicator is therefore based on a modified threshold of the critical levels of incidence to take into account the progress of the national vaccination plan. Or in other words, it weighs the number of infections with the number of vaccinated, because a number of high infections in a region with so many vaccinated people will not have to worry too much “.
“Using this indicator – continues Altems – it is possible to implement preventive actions even before hospitalizations increase. In fact, hospitalizations themselves are not to be kept under control, because acting when hospitalizations have already increased means acting late, as was the case. done in the second wave last fall “.
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“In the light of the developments in recent days – says Americo Cicchetti, director of Altems – it is essential to envisage the adoption of restrictive measures which, however, take into account the new context linked to the advancement of the vaccination campaign which differs from region to region”.
“The thresholds for entry into the yellow zone must therefore be reviewed and differentiated between regions – he underlines – because the progress of the vaccination campaign in the various regions is different. With this last we introduce a model for revising the regional risk thresholds, potentially useful for government of the current phase of the pandemic “.
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