The European leader also assures that it will be a long conflict that will test the military and economic strength of Moscow and kyiv
< img class=”aligncenter” src=”https://thegaltimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/putin’s-health-weapons-of-the-west-and-soldiers-morale-the- three-arguments-that-zelensky-wields-to-predict-the-victory-of-ukra-9a7b0a2.png” alt=”Putin’s health, the weapons of the West and the morale of the soldiers: the three arguments that he wields Zelensky to predict Ukraine’s victory against Russia” />
By
Román Lejtman
Volodimir Zelensky walks through the streets of Bucha, scene of the genocide committed by Russian troops during the occupation of this city located a few kilometers from kyiv
Volodimir Zelensky predicts Russia’s defeat due to the possible absence of Vladimir Putin, the morale of his troops on the front lines, and the asymmetry that should exist between Ukraine’s arsenal and the conventional weapons available to the Kremlin.
The European leader considers that the sum of these factors will end up turning the result of the war in favor of the military coalition led by the United States and Europe. The use of bacteriological, chemical or nuclear weapons can imply a disruptive event in the war, but Zelensky considers that Putin still rules out using that dystopian arsenal.
The forecasts of the President of Ukraine are defined during the meetings he holds with his staff in the bunker he occupies in kyiv. Zelensky receives intelligence information from the United States, Europe and the Middle East, in addition to his own resources that operate on the battlefield.
A paperWashington have enough capacity to design a tactical operation on the ground, but the remains of food, ammunition and documents collected in the recovered areas also provide an understanding of what is happening behind enemy lines.
Vladimir Putin during an interview with the Rossiya-1 television channel
In the analyzes of the development of the war carried out by Zelensky and his staff, the political and personal situation of Putin. From this perspective, the president of Ukraine assesses that the disappearance of Putin -physical or institutional- would end the conflict in a few weeks.
In strategic terms, Zelensky’s direct advisers recognize that there is a stalemate: Russia consolidates its positions in the Dombas, and Ukraine recovers its own territories in the east. However, that balance in the center of the board would be broken in the coming weeks by the sum of the weapons provided by the West plus the morale of the troops that fight night and day.
The military-industrial complex of the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan, Israel and Canada is more productive than the weapons factories controlled by the Kremlin.And the weapons, logistical support systems and intelligence provided by Washington, London, Paris and Berlin are more effective than Russian or Chinese supplies that can reach the conflict zone.
It is the application of mathematics to the war scenario: Putin does not have enough scale to compete with the quality and quantity of weapons and intelligence that Ukraine receives from the West. Time plays in favor of the invaded country, and this inexorable factor puts the Kremlin on the ropes.
Military history ensures that the morale of the troops is a key aspect in the conflicts. The United States verified the thesis in Vietnam and the Soviet Union (Russia, now) in Afghanistan. A local soldier motivated by his flag is a more effective war resource than a foreign officer who wonders every night why he is fighting a war that seems foreign to him.
Ukrainian soldiers walk alongside destroyed Russian tanks and armored vehicles in the city of Bucha
Zelensky takes advantage of the diplomatic and economic decisions that affect Russia, but his basic concern is the battlefield and the situation of the cities that suffer the collateral damage of the conflict. The President of Ukraine receives systematic information on the supply of food and fuel, and prepares a daily speech to encourage a society that wants to return to its pre-war life.
In his bunker in kyiv, the president of Ukraine assures that the conflict will last at least a year. And that there could be two different stages: the recovery of the land ceded at the beginning of the Russian offensive and the final defeat of the Kremlin with the liberation of Crimea.
One hundred days after the illegal invasion executed by Russia, Zelensky has already defeated previous speculation that Putin would occupy kyiv in a few weeks. And now he seeks to crown a victory that ends the war and places Ukraine in a privileged position on the international board.