The former mayor of Bogotá reaches 46.4% of favoritism while the candidate of the Historical Pact follows closely with 43.3%.< /h2>
Rodolfo Hernández and Gustavo Petro
It was the first week since the first round of May 29 and the presidential race seems to maintain a tie, with a slight advantage of the candidate Rodolfo Hernández over Gustavo Petro, when there are 15 days left to go to the polls for the final vote in these elections.
The signatures Guarumo S.A.S. and EcoAnalítica Measurement and Economic Concepts S.A.S. revealed in the newspaper El Tiempo a new survey of voting intentions for this Sunday, June 5, with data collected in the first days of the month and the participation of 1,958 citizens.
The results show that so far, the forces remain divided. According to the results, Hernández reaches 46.4% of favoritism while Petro follows closely with 43.3%. The advantage is narrower if the margin of error of 2 is taken into account .5 set for the measurement.
This forecast shows a different scenario than the one also revealed by the National Consulting Center for the magazine Semana, in which the candidate of the Historical Pact reached 44.9% of voting intention, almost 4 points above his opponent from the Anti-Corruption Governors League, which got 41%.
The results also make a difference with respect to the measurement of the same firm Guarumo and EcoAnalítica for before the first presidential round, when a hypothetical second-round scenario with Petro and Hernández was consulted at that time.
The result on that occasion showed that the former mayor of Bogotá would obtain 45.2% and that of Bucaramanga 41.5%.
With these results, the outlook does not seem clear and the candidates continue to seek to consolidate their advantage with the votes they can win in the remaining two weeks of the campaign, as well as attract voters who voted for other candidates in the first presidential round.
In this sense, the polling firms Guarumo S.A.S. and EcoAnalítica Measurement and Economic Concepts S.A.S. They consulted who the respondents voted for in the first round and who they considered voting for in the second, to provide an overview of the transfer of voters to one or another candidate.
The majority of Federico Gutiérrez’s voters, like the former candidate, affirmed that their option was engineer Hernández. The results showed that 66.8% of those who voted for the Team for Colombia candidate, who reached 5,058,010 votes, could end up choosing the candidate of the League of Anticorruption Governors. However, 3.5% said they would do it for Petro.
Gutiérrez, as soon as he conceded defeat, stated that he supported Hernández and has held talks with the candidate after the elections. The same has happened with Sergio Fajardo and the Hope Center Coalition, although their formal support has been cut short in recent days for not reaching a programmatic agreement.
Fajardo was fourth in vote and reached 888,585 votes. The coalition was divided between both candidates and the voters seem to have adopted the same behavior. According to the results of the survey, 35.8% would be determined to support Petro and 33.2 to Hernández.
In the case of John Milton Rodríguez and Enrique Gómez, the majority of their thousands of voters would go with Hernández (53.6 and 77.1 percent), respectively. However, a small part of the voters of Colombia Justa Libres, 18%, could bet on Petro in the second round.
According to the analysis of the newspaper El Tiempo, there is a large percentage of voters of former candidates such as Gutiérrez and Fajardo (23 and 24.5 percent) who stated that they voted blank for the ballotage b>. Because that box will be present, but will not have legal results regardless of the result, it could be a group of people who have not made a decision and make a difference.
The latest Presidential Tracking of the RCN channel, which makes daily measurements, shows a result similar to that of the Guarumo and EcoAnalítica surveys, with slight advantages. In it, Hernández decreased from 50.4% to 47.9% on June 3, while Petro showed a growth trend from 45.6% to 46.3%.