Luis Ángel Gómez used “a statistical model on the polls and an analysis of trends” with which, contrary to the polling firms, he predicted that Rodolfo Hernández would go to the second round
Luis Angel GD and his prediction about the first electoral round of the Presidency 2022 – 2026
Not even the most important polling firms in the country and the world were able to guess the electoral results of the first presidential round in Colombia as closely as did the tweeter Luis Ángel Gomez Duke (@LuisAngelGD). For two days (May 27), this master’s degree in administration and well-known character on Twitter published his forecast for these elections, and, when comparing it this Sunday, May 29, with what was reported by the National Registry, he beat all the results.< /p>
Contrary to the polls, in his forecast, Luis Ángel pointed out that those who would go to the second round would be the formula Gustavo Petro – Francia Márquez, representatives of the Historical Pact, and the union Rodolfo Hernández – Marelen Castillo, from the League of Anticorruption Leaders. Petro, according to the tweeter, would obtain more than 8 million votes (39% of the electorate) and Hernández 5.8 million votes (28.5%).
On the other hand, Federico Gutiérrez, of the Team for Colombia, according to Luis Ángel, would obtain 5 million votes, that is, 24.5%; and Sergio Fajardo, from the Hope Center Coalition, 850,000 votes (4%).
The results of the Registry show, as Luis Ángel predicted, the second round will be Petro against Hernández. On May 29, the Historical Pact obtained 8,526,787 votes, that is, 40.32%, and the League of Anticorruption Leaders, 5,952,968 votes, which represents 28.15%. As for Gutiérrez, he captured 23.92% of the electorate (5,057,858 votes), and Fajardo 4.20% (888,518 votes).
Thus, when comparing results, the differences between the results of this May 29 and the tweeter’s speculations are not far away.
According to the tweeter, his forecast“It is based on a statistical model on the surveys and with an analysis of trends.” INFOBAE COLOMBIA spoke with Luis Ángel, who explained that he used the surveys revealed by other firms and compared them with the electoral census of the 2018 presidential elections.
“In summary: based on the latest surveys, the first thing I did was look at the technical files, the pollster and the distribution of zones versus the electoral census and the 2018 elections. I will weigh which ones were more solid and, from that, I began the analysis. I tried to smooth out a bit within that distribution by averaging and trending. At the end of the exercise I tried to look at the trend of the latest polls and what was going to be the transfer of votes of the candidates and the reaction of having him as 3rd way and an outsider”, said Luis Ángel.
The tweeter has experience doing this type of analysis. Luis Ángel works with data analysis and assures that he is passionate about the subject. Initially, he made his forecasts for himself, but he began to publish them on social networks and, being so accurate, they have been well received.
Even for legislative elections and internal consultations , carried out on March 13, the tweeter published his analysis, but says that it was not “as exact as this one”. He noted that “ in the consultations, the sample size of each one was very small, and with so many candidates it was difficult to measure growth”, so the work was complicated.
In this case, Luis Ángel was also sure of his calculations. He admitted that he hesitated briefly, but in the end the trends remained.
“When you make a forecast, you try to portray reality in the best way from the available data or information. You could see a trend, Rodolfo moving up, Gutierrez and Petro stalling and losing ground. I hesitated a bit when the dirty campaign against the engineer started last week. The two extremes joined hands to try to reverse that trend, but in general terms I was sure of the analysis,” he said.
Now, facing the second presidential round, Luis Ángel already is preparing to analyze the electoral panorama. For the moment, without making strict calculations, he foresees that the next president of Colombia will be Rodolfo Hernández, however, he notes that the next elections are three weeks away and the game may change.
“For the second round I will do it again. If the elections were tomorrow, Rodolfo Hernández is the new president of Colombia, but there are three weeks to go, the campaigns will be reconfigured and there are some strategies that will begin to play a fundamental role in the face of June 19. Rodolfo has a higher probability today, but we have to wait because there are 21 days left”, he sentenced.