In Moldova, on charges of treason and corruptionformer president, pro-Russian politician and leader of the Socialist Party Igor Dodon was detained, and the detention coincided with negotiations with NATO countries on strengthening the defense capability of the Moldovan army. Political scientist Vitaly Kulik told Apostrophe about why Dodon was charged right now and whether Chisinau could try to get rid of pro-Russian agents.
Rumors about Dodon’s activities have been circulating for a long time, there were a number of leaks from anti-corruption bodies: the Moldovan special services said that Dodon communicated not only with oligarchs such as Plahotniuc, but also committed actions that could be qualified as high treason. Therefore, information about the criminal case against the former president appeared immediately after his resignation, the investigating authorities had questions for him even when he was president, but they did not receive adequate answers to them. In my opinion, now there is a natural development of the situation.
At the moment, Dodon and his supporters are trying to undermine the political situation in Moldova. The former president is accused of actually playing along with the Russians in provoking the riots that they miraculously avoided on May 9th. That is, we are talking about creating instability with the possibility of being drawn into a quasi-armed conflict and the overthrow of the constitutional power in the Republic of Moldova. Therefore, in this game, Dodon must be neutralized as a possible pro-Russian henchman, including by bringing the story with the accusation against him to its logical conclusion.
At the same time, I understand why this has not been done before. The fact is that part of the political elite, in one way or another, was once Mr. Plahotniuc’s clients, just like Dodon. And now, pursuing Dodon, they risk “coming out on themselves.” Of course, I’m not talking about Sandu, but I’m talking about a number of her other political partners who may turn out to be Dodon’s accomplices in the event of an independent investigation into corruption. In any case, this is a question for the Moldovan investigators.
In my opinion, the information that our side has, and which was announced and published in Moldova itself, indicates that Dodon wanted revenge, and he and his people took part in planning to destabilize the situation in Moldova. In a situation where there is a threat to the Republic of Moldova, including when the question is about the existence of this state as such, against the background of the absence of large armed forces in Moldova, unable to resist even the Pridnestrovian formations, this decision of Chisinau is correct. I hope that they will bring the case to an end, there will be an objective court and the verdict in the Dodon case will be announced.
At the same time, it should be understood that Moldova began its journey along the Western track a long time ago, and not now, when there are reports of possible Western assistance in the supply of weapons. Let me remind you that Moldova received visa-free travel before Ukraine, it fulfilled all obligations within the framework of the Association with the EU. In general, their movement on the European integration track was ahead of Ukraine, Chisinau is one step away from being a candidate. That is, they did all their homework in terms of moving to the EU, unlike Ukraine. Therefore, talking about the supply of weapons is not a vector choice. The fact is that Chisinau now has nothing to counter the Transnistrian or Russian threat. In the event of a military operation, an attempt to land troops in the Odessa region on Budzhak and provoking Pridnestrovie to participate in an armed conflict, Chisinau has nothing to resist. They do not have a normal army, they are not able to resist the so-called “PMR” armed forces. 5,000 armed forces of Moldova against 8,000 so-called armed forces of the “PMR” is about nothing.
Of course, Moldova is afraid of being drawn into a war: its existence as an independent state is at stake. Therefore, it is now natural for Moldova to take advantage of the situation and receive weapons from the NATO countries and the United States, carry out modernization, and create an effective defense army. At the same time, I do not see Moldova’s readiness to change its neutral status until the Transnistrian conflict is resolved. In addition, here the neutral status is “filkin’s letter”. None of the players seriously considers him, and first of all Russia, to which he is allegedly oriented. Yes, Chisinau is trying to balance and refrain from any actions that could be regarded by Russia as aggressive and threatening Russian interests. But Moldova is now a transport hub for the supply of goods and necessary things for Ukraine from the countries of the European Union. In order to knock Chisinau out of this logistical chain, there were attempts to provoke instability in early May by drawing Transnistria into an armed conflict. Now this idea has temporarily died out, but it has not disappeared. Therefore, it is obvious that Moldova will have to choose, but as long as Transnistria exists, Chisinau is forced to balance and therefore will not give up its neutral status.